American Equity Investment Life stock has seen major volatility over the last two weeks (10 trading days) – the stock has moved 44% to $32 now. This jump was a reaction to the news that the company received a takeover offer in early September from Athene Holding and Massachusetts Mutual Life… MILWAUKEE, Oct. 13, 2020 /PRNewswire/ — New research from Northwestern Mutual’s 2020 Planning & Progress Study reveals that the savings rate among American adults aged 18+ is up, and it’s Shares in the management agency of K-pop sensation BTS were expected to rocket on their stock market debut Thursday, making an instant multi-billionaire of its chairman and boosting the seven band members' own fortunes. Wall Street closed lower for second consecutive days as expectations for a fresh round of fiscal stimulus seems unlikely before the upcoming election.
BRAZIL – 2020/09/30: In this photo illustration an American Equity Investment Life Holding Company … [+] logo seen displayed on a smartphone. (Photo Illustration by Rafael Henrique/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images)
American Equity Investment Life stock (NYSE: AEL) has seen major volatility over the last two weeks (10 trading days) – the stock has moved 44% to $32 now. This jump was a reaction to the news that the company received a takeover offer in early September from Athene Holding and Massachusetts Mutual Life Insurance, offering $36 per share in cash. But will the company’s stock continue its upward trajectory over the coming weeks, or is a drop in the stock imminent?
According to the Trefis Machine Learning Engine, which identifies trends in the company’s stock price using 20 years of historical stock data, AEL stock is likely to give an average return of -1.9% over the next two weeks (10 trading days) after moving 47% in the past two weeks (10 trading days). Notably, there is a bleak 33% chance that the stock will outperform the S&P500 index over the same period.
But how would these numbers change if you are interested in holding American Equity Investment Life stock for a shorter or a longer time? You can test the answer and many other combinations on the Trefis Machine Learning Engine to test the Average and Excess Return after a Fall or Rise in American Equity Investment Life stock. You can test the chance of recovery over different time intervals of a quarter, month, or even just 1 day!
MACHINE LEARNING ENGINE – try it yourself:
IF American Equity Investment Life stock moved by -5% over 5 trading days, THEN over the next 21 trading days, AEL stock moves an average of 2.4 percent, which implies an excess return of 1.4 percent compared to the S&P500.
More importantly, there is 58% probability of a positive return over the next 21 trading days and 54% probability of a positive excess return after a -5% change over 5 trading days.
Some Fun Scenarios, FAQs & Making Sense of American Equity Investment Life Stock Movements:
Question 1: Is the average return for American Equity Investment Life stock higher after a drop?
Consider two situations,
Case 1: American Equity Investment Life stock drops by -5% or more in a week
Case 2: American Equity Investment Life stock rises by 5% or more in a week
Is the average return for American Equity Investment Life stock higher over the subsequent month after Case 1 or Case 2?
AEL stock fares better after Case 1, with an average return of 3% over the next month (21 trading days) under Case 1 (where the stock has just suffered a 5% loss over the previous week), versus, an average return of -2.1% for Case 2.
In comparison, the S&P 500 has an average return of 3.1% over the next 21 trading days under Case 1, and an average return of just 0.5% for Case 2 as detailed in our dashboard that details the average return for the S&P 500 after a fall or rise.
Try the Trefis machine learning engine above to see for yourself how American Equity Investment Life stock is likely to behave after any specific gain or loss over a period.
Question 2: Does patience pay?
If you buy and hold American Equity Investment Life stock, the expectation is over time the near term fluctuations will cancel out, and the long-term positive trend will favor you – at least if the company is otherwise strong.
Overall, according to data and Trefis machine learning engine’s calculations, patience absolutely pays for most stocks!
For AEL stock, the returns over the next N days after a -5% change over the last 5 trading days is detailed in the table below, along with the returns for the S&P500:
Question 3: What about the average return after a rise if you wait for a while?
The average return after a rise is understandably lower than after a fall as detailed in the previous question. Interestingly, though, if a stock has gained over the last few days, you would do better to avoid short-term bets for most stocks – although AEL stock appears to be an exception to this general observation.
AEL’s returns over the next N days after a 5% change over the last 5 trading days is detailed in the table below, along with the returns for the S&P500:
It’s pretty powerful to test the trend for yourself for American Equity Investment Life stock by changing the inputs in the charts above.
What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Here’s a high quality portfolio to beat the market, with over 100% return since 2016, versus 55% for the S&P 500. Comprised of companies with strong revenue growth, healthy profits, lots of cash, and low risk, it has outperformed the broader market year after year, consistently.
See all Trefis Price Estimates and Download Trefis Data here
What’s behind Trefis? See How It’s Powering New Collaboration and What-Ifs For CFOs and Finance Teams | Product, R&D, and Marketing Teams
Author: Trefis Team
Investment – Wikipedia
This section needs expansion. You can help by adding to it. (October 2018)
This section needs expansion. You can help by adding to it. (October 2018)
- Investing at Curlie
Author: Authority control
Americans’ Personal Savings are Up as Financial Anxiety Runs High
MILWAUKEE, Oct. 13, 2020 /PRNewswire/ — New research from Northwestern Mutual’s 2020 Planning & Progress Study reveals that the savings rate among American adults aged 18+ is up, and it’s likely the result of their concerns about what could come next financially and economically at this extraordinary moment in history.
The study found that on average, U.S. adults aged 18+ have $65,900 in their personal savings (excluding funds specifically earmarked for retirement like a 401(k), IRA, etc.). That is a 10% increase from the $59,737 average reported in 2019.
This aligns with U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis data1 which shows the savings rate – the portion of monthly income that households are saving – hit a record 33.7% in April and has hovered around 20% in the following months. Before the pandemic, the savings rate was approximately 7.5%.
Overall, more people feel financially secure (37% between 8–10 on a 10-point scale) than insecure (16% between 1–3). But that has dropped somewhat from pre-pandemic levels when 44% reported between 8–10 on the financial security scale. Additionally and importantly, there is a substantial minority that are clearly financially vulnerable:
- Nearly one in 10 (9%) Americans have no personal savings at all
- Over one-third (36%) don’t know how much they have saved
“People are dealing with wide and varying circumstances as a result of the pandemic, and many are taking action to increase what they can save,” says Christian Mitchell, executive vice president & chief customer officer at Northwestern Mutual. “For those who can, adding to their emergency funds may help mitigate some of the widespread feelings of financial anxiety that so many Americans are confronting.”
Preparing for what lies ahead
While savings are up overall, people have significant concerns about what could take place over the coming months and years, and how it might impact their finances.
Among a list of financial concerns, Americans cited the rising cost of health care as the top worry with nearly eight in 10 (79%) reporting feeling some level of anxiety (either high, moderate, or low) about it.
Other reasons people cited feeling financially anxious include:
- Unplanned health emergency – 77%
- Unplanned financial emergency – 77%
- Their income – 76%
- Inability to afford healthcare – 68%
- Level of debt – 60%
Nearly one-third (31%) of U.S. adults say financial anxiety causes them to feel depressed at least once a month. Two in 10 (21%) say it impacts their relationship with a partner/spouse at least once a month; and one-fifth (19%) say it has a monthly impact on their job performance.
“It’s understandable why people are feeling anxious, but it’s important that the stress doesn’t rise to unhealthy levels for reasons that are avoidable,” says Mitchell. “Stress can be paralyzing especially if it’s coupled with uncertainty about what action steps can be taken. The key is to gain control, get perspective, and take action.”
As a starting point, Mitchell suggests the following for those who are feeling anxious about their financial futures:
- Review spending habits: It can be hard to manage or mitigate financial anxiety if people don’t have a clear sense of their spending behaviors.
Nearly half (49%) of U.S. adults say they don’t have great clarity on exactly how much they can afford to spend now vs how much they should be saving for later. As a result, 27% say they hold back on spending while 22% say they spend and hope they’ve saved enough.
Taking a step back and getting a solid understanding of where money is flowing can help individuals make more informed decisions.
- Refine or create a budget, with short- and long-term goals: Identify what expenses are critical and factor in both near-term and long-term obligations.
At times of financial stress, human behavior can become highly acute. The research shows that one in five (20%) people say they are thinking about or actively planning their finances only on a week-to-week or day-to-day basis.
That’s understandable but it’s important to not lose sight of long-term objectives. A structured plan can help to make sure near-term needs are addressed while long-term goals – like saving for retirement – don’t get sidelined or put on hold.
- Consider seeking outside advice: Some people are reluctant to seek professional help because they either assume it’s only for the wealthy or it’s viewed as an unnecessary expense when finances are a concern. Yet it’s at challenging times when professional help can be most important. A financial professional can help provide more clarity and get people back on track if they’ve drifted or lost their way.
About The 2020 Northwestern Mutual Planning & Progress Study
The 2020 Planning & Progress Study is a research series conducted by The Harris Poll on behalf of Northwestern Mutual. This wave included 2,702 American adults aged 18 or older who participated in an online survey between June 26 – July 10, 2020. Results have been weighted to Census targets for education, age/gender, race/ethnicity, region and household income. Propensity score weighting was also used to adjust for respondents’ propensity to be online. No estimates of theoretical sampling error can be calculated; a full methodology is available.
About Northwestern Mutual
Northwestern Mutual has been helping people and businesses achieve financial security for more than 160 years. Through a holistic planning approach, Northwestern Mutual combines the expertise of its financial professionals with a personalized digital experience and industry-leading products to help its clients plan for what’s most important. With $290.3 billion in total assets, $29.9 billion in revenues, and $1.9 trillion worth of life insurance protection in force, Northwestern Mutual delivers financial security to more than 4.6 million people with life, disability income and long-term care insurance, annuities, and brokerage and advisory services. The company manages more than $161 billion of investments owned by its clients and held or managed through its wealth management and investment services businesses. Northwestern Mutual ranks 102 on the 2020 FORTUNE 500 and is recognized by FORTUNE® as one of the “World’s Most Admired” life insurance companies in 2020.
Northwestern Mutual is the marketing name for The Northwestern Mutual Life Insurance Company (NM)(life and disability insurance, annuities, and life insurance with long-term care benefits) and its subsidiaries in Milwaukee, WI. Subsidiaries include Northwestern Mutual Investment Services, LLC (investment brokerage services), broker-dealer, registered investment adviser, member FINRA and SIPC; the Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Company® (investment advisory and trust services), a federal savings bank; and Northwestern Long Term Care Insurance Company.
1 U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Saving Rate [PSAVERT], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PSAVERT
Author: Northwestern Mutual
BTS’ management agency set to soar on stock market debut
Shares in the management agency of K-pop sensation BTS were expected to rocket on their stock market debut Thursday, making an instant multi-billionaire of its chairman and boosting the seven band members’ own fortunes.
The initial public offering of shares in Big Hit Entertainment saw staggering demand, with the public section oversubscribed no fewer than 607 times and applicants receiving only a tiny fraction of their requests.
The firm’s centrepiece asset BTS have risen to global stardom in recent years, cementing their prominence in the world’s biggest music market in August with their all-English track “Dynamite” topping the US Billboard Hot 100.
At the IPO price of 135,000 won ($118) per share, Big Hit would have a market capitalisation of 4.8 trillion won — well over $4 billion, and more than Hanjin Kal, the holding company for the conglomerate that includes the South’s flag-carrier Korean Air.
Big Hit founder and CEO Bang Si-hyuk is worth $1.4 billion at the IPO price, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, and is retaining a stake of more than 36 percent of the firm.
The flotation also boosts the band members’ own wealth — Bang gave each of them more than 68,000 shares in August, worth around $8 million at the IPO price and totalling 1.4 percent of the company.
Analysts expect the shares to rocket as soon as the market opens.
“Considering all the information about the firm now available, the IPO price could be the lowest price we will ever see,” Park Sung-ho of Yuanta Securities told AFP.
Earlier this year, his company estimated Big Hit’s enterprise value — its market capitalisation plus accumulated debt — at two to three trillion won, he said.
It has since raised it to 10 trillion won after assessing its business models including licensing sales, he added.
– Military impact –
But there is one inescapable hurdle looming for the newly listing agency: mandatory military service for all seven boy band members, who made their debut in 2013.
South Korea requires all able-bodied men to serve in uniform to defend it against security threats from the nuclear-armed North.
Under the existing conscription laws BTS member Jin — real name Kim Seok-jin — aged 27, will have to report for duty by the end of 2021.
The other six members, born between 1993 and 1997, will have to follow in the coming years.
South Korea is currently debating exemptions for stars such as BTS, who have been at the forefront of the Korean Wave cultural phenomenon in recent years and are estimated to generate billions for the country’s economy.
But no such dispensations have so far been granted to pop stars, and if they are forced to leave the stage it could blow a hole in Big Hit’s finances: BTS were responsible for 97 percent of its revenues last year, according to the IPO prospectus.
Big Hit acknowledged their anticipated absence as a “risk factor”.
It is looking to expand activities such as “contents licensing sales” that do not require the artists’ “direct participation” to try to cushion the blow.
But it acknowledged their time off-camera “could have a negative impact on the company’s profitability and growth”.
Author: Kang Jin-kyu
Stock Market News for Oct 15, 2020
Wall Street closed lower for second consecutive days as expectations for a fresh round of fiscal stimulus seems unlikely before the upcoming election. Moreover, market participants remained sidetracked as U.S. presidential election is less than three weeks away. All the three major stock indexes ended in negative territory.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) fell 0.6% or 165.81 points to close at 28,514.00, maintaining a 2-day losing streak. Notably, 20 components of the 30-stock index ended in the red while 10 finished in green. Major loser of the Dow was UnitedHealth Group Inc.(UNH – Free Report) that lost 2.9%. UnitedHealth carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Moreover, the tech-laden Nasdaq Composite finished at 11,768.73, dropping 0.8% due to the weak performance by large-cap technology stocks. The tech-heavy index has declined for two successive days.
Meanwhile, the S&P 500 dipped 0.7% to end at 3,488.67, continuing the 2-day losing run. The Communication Services Select Sector SPDR (XLC), the Real Estate Select Sector SPDR (XLRE) and the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR (XLY) fell 1.2%, 1.2% and 1.1%, respectively. Notably, eight out of eleven sectors of the benchmark index closed in negative zone and three in the green.
The fear-gauge CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) was up 1.3% to 26.40. A total of 8.2 billion shares were traded on Wednesday, lower than the last 20-session average of 9.6 billion. Decliners outnumbered advancers on the NYSE by a 1.51-to-1 ratio. On Nasdaq, a 1.95-to-1 ratio favored declining issues.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin expressed concerns that the second round of coronavirus-aid package is unlikely to come before the U.S. presidential election scheduled on Nov 3. The Democrats have settled for $2.2 trillion stimulus while the White House approved only $1.8 trillion.
It is not clear whether a deal will arrive before the U.S. presidential election scheduled on Nov 3, though House speaker Nancy Pelosi said she is still hopeful for a deal. Meanwhile, the Republic-controlled Senate leader Mitch McConnell said he will release a separate stimulus proposal worth just $500 billion. President Donald Trump has already rejected this proposal.
The U.S. presidential election is less than a month away. Historically, stock markets have remained volatile during the month before the election. Market participants generally choose to hold cash instead of investing in risky assets like equities while assessing the economic and financial consequences of the election result.
The Department of Labor reported that the Producers Pride Index (PPI) increased 0.4% in September beating the consensus estimate of 0.2%. In August, PPI increased by 0.3%. Year over year, PPI increased 0.4%, marking its first increase since March.
The core PPI (excluding food, energy and trade services) also rose 0.4% in September surpassing consensus estimate of 0.2%. In August, core PPI increased by 0.3%. Year over year, core PPI increased 0.7%, reflecting its largest increase since March.
United Airlines Posts Q3 Loss, Suffers Weak Load Factor
ast year, it generated $24 billion in global revenues. By 2020, it’s predicted to blast through the roof to $77.6 billion. Famed investor Mark Cuban says it will produce “the world’s first trillionaires,” but that should still leave plenty of money for regular investors who make the right trades early.
See Zacks’ 3 Best Stocks to Play This Trend >>
Author: Zacks Investment Research