What stock-market investors will be watching for in first Trump-Biden debate

What stock-market investors will be watching for in first Trump-Biden debate

Tuesday’s presidential debate between President Donald Trump and Democratic challenger Joe Biden could OGDEN — The Ogden City Council is considering forming a new committee, likely with official citizen representation, that would further magnify their financial oversight microscope.

Nervous investors will be among what’s expected to be a record-breaking audience on Tuesday for the first debate between President Donald Trump and Democratic challenger Joe Biden.

But how they react is more likely to be driven by which candidate is perceived to come out on top more than the substance of what they have to say on the issues.

Read: Tuesday’s presidential debate: Biden must ‘aggressively’ push back against Trump to win, expert says

“The debate may not see an immediate reaction per se, but where you might see a reaction is in the post-debate polling data,” if it shows Biden’s lead over Trump narrowing or widening, said Rebecca Felton, senior market strategist at Richmond, Va.-based RiverFront Investment Group, in an interview.

That may take a few days. History shows markets don’t typically see outsize moves following first debates, which are typically the most watched. In the election years since 1960 that did feature presidential debates, the median move by the S&P 500 the following day was a fall of -0.14%, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

As a general rule, analysts view the prospect of a second-term for Trump as a positive for stocks, while a win for Biden is seen as potential fodder for a retreat, particularly if Democrats wrest control of the Senate from Republicans while keeping control of the House.

After all, a Trump win would keep the 2017 corporate tax cuts in place. The president would also be likely to maintain his confrontational stance with China and push for more infrastructure spending.

Biden is also a proponent of infrastructure spending, but has called for an increase in taxes on corporations and high-income individuals. He’s also seen as more likely to press for increased regulations on certain sectors and industries, including banks, energy and health care, she noted.

Read: How Trump and Biden tax policies could affect your paycheck, tax return, investment portfolio and nest egg

Biden, however, is seen as less likely to use tariffs against China, Europe and other trading partners, which would be a positive for the global economic outlook, Felton said in a recent note.

With the economic outlook turning almost exclusively around the path of the COVID-19 pandemic, party-specific policy prognostications are less clear, said Victoria Fernandez, chief market strategist at Houston-based Crossmark Global Investments, in an interview.

“If we have a Democratic administration come in, typically we would say that’s not going to be as favorable for business…but I can’t imagine we’re going to see huge changes that we think would affect the economy when the economy is suffering so much from COVID,” she said. 

The RealClearPolitics average of nationwide polls showed Biden leading Trump by 6.7 percentage points, and has ranged between around 6 to 10 basis points since late July. Biden is also seen with a narrow lead in several top battleground states.

The debate comes as investors are growing increasingly nervous about the prospect of a contested outcome, fears that were amplified as Trump and Republican senators planned to nominate and confirm a new justice to replace Ruth Bader Ginsburg, who died on Sept. 18 before Election Day. Trump in the past week refused to commit to a peaceful transfer of power following the election, arguing, without citing evidence, that mail-in ballots carry the risk of widespread fraud.

Worries over the prospect of a contested election, potentially leaving the result in limbo for weeks, has been blamed in part for a pickup in market volatility this month as equities pulled back from record highs. A narrowing of the polls in the wake of the debate could add to expectations for a muddled outcome, analysts said.

Read: Why investors are starting to freak out about the 2020 presidential election
Check out: 2000 redux? Stock-market election fears have investors revisiting Bush-Gore battle

Activity in the options market, as reflected by Cboe Volatility Index futures, shows that traders see the potential for elevated volatility in November, December and January.

Related: Contrarian investors are betting against increased volatility around the election

“Political discord and uncertainty have been one of the many things that have defined 2020, and this trading variable will only grow more relevant as the first presidential debate looms and the election approaches.,” wrote rates analysts Ian Lyngen and Jon Hill of BMO Capital Markets, in a Friday note.

Some market watchers do expect traders to deliver something of an early judgment on the debate.

“FX markets in Asia Wednesday morning may be the first litmus test of how the dollar will fare in the run-up to the election,” wrote analysts at ING, in a Friday note.

“One school of thought is that a strong Trump performance is equity positive/dollar negative. We have the view, were Biden to win, the dollar could decline in 2021 on a benign world view — but let’s look out for the price action on Wednesday,” they said.

While the polls may drive the immediate market reaction, analysts said there was plenty in the way of details to listen for in the debate. Investors will want to hear how Trump would plan to deal with China in a second term and will be eager for Biden to put more light on his approach to relations with Beijing, wrote Kristin Hooper and Andy Blocker of Invesco, in a note.

And since tax policy may be the biggest source of concern among investors when it comes to a Biden presidency, investors will “want to hear which taxes in the Biden tax plan he is committed to implementing, and whether or not the state of the economy will impact his timing,” they wrote.

So what should investors do? Crossmark’s Fernandez said investors should resist making knee-jerk reactions to headlines and changes in the polls. With the economic path dependent on how the pandemic plays out, even the election outcome itself might not be that much of a mover for the market, she said.

Crossmark has advised clients to adopt a “barbell” strategy, moving about a month ago to maintain exposure to large-cap growth stocks but trimming positions that had become excessively overweight before the September pullback, while building positions in more staple-type stocks that have lagged behind in the 2020 rally.

Following the debate, attention next week will be locked on the labor market as investors look to assess whether the economic rebound is losing steam amid the lack of another round of rescue spending from Washington.

Source: www.marketwatch.com

Author: William Watts


Ogden City Council looking for help with financial oversight

Ogden City Council looking for help with financial oversight

OGDEN — The Ogden City Council is considering forming a new committee, likely with official citizen representation, that would further magnify their financial oversight microscope.

Janene Eller-Smith, the council’s executive director, said her office is recommending the council vote to create a formal Audit Committee, which would assist the council in its financial supervision responsibilities.

Much like the setup of the U.S. federal government, Ogden City consists of an administrative branch (Mayor Mike Caldwell’s office), a judicial branch (the city justice court) and a legislative branch (the council). As the legislative branch, some of the council’s primary duties include adopting the city administration’s budget, determining tax and fee rates and conducting financial and management audits.

Though the committee and its precise role would be defined more in-depth as time goes on, Eller-Smith said the body would likely do things like review the city’s financial statements, review policies and procedures, review city code, and evaluate qualifications and performance of the independent auditors who scrutinize the city’s budget.

“This would be a committee that could spend more time than (the council) has in their work sessions,” she said. “Delving in and understanding what’s going on and also making future recommendations.”

Eller-Smith said the body could include council members, members of the city administration and Ogden citizens not affiliated with either organization. The body would have no more than five voting members and any council members or city staff on the board would not vote.

Council members appear to be keen on forming the committee, but several said it would be important to take a cautious approach when filling out the board.

“I think it needs to be somebody that would take a broad look,” said council member Rich Hyer.

Council member Marcia White said she thinks it would be good to have more laypeople, who don’t necessarily have finance backgrounds, on the committee. She said speaking a basic form of “Finance 101” about the city’s complex budgetary operation would be good for citizens to better understand some of the city’s financial decision making.

Though it’s certainly not alone among government agencies, citizens of Ogden have called for the city to be more transparent, particularly with items that involve a lot of money and deal with hot button community issues. Facilities like the Ogden-Hinckley Airport and the Marshall White Community Center both have a vocal and passionate group of community advocates who have called for more clarity and citizen involvement when it comes to making decisions about those spaces.

The municipal airport has been a financial burden for the city, subsidized by as much as $750,000 per year during the 2010s. The subsidies have been reduced in recent years, but the city still loses about $320,000 per year running the airport, according to city council documents. The city is currently working on a 20-year master plan for the airport, which will serve as a guide for continued development at the facility.

As for the Marshall White, it’s been a regular topic of discussion in city circles since March 2018 when its centerpiece feature, the pool, closed after officials discovered large cracks in its surface. Initial estimates suggest it could cost more than $2 million to bring the pool back to life.

In the two years since the pool closed, Marshall White users have regularly asked the city to move forward to fix it. But Caldwell and others in his administration have said the high cost and the possibility of opening a new YMCA facility has added more nuance to what was an already uncertain situation with the pool.

The creation of the audit committee will be considered by the council on Oct. 6. Eller-Smith said if the council votes for the committee, work will begin to hammer out further details like the board’s precise makeup, meeting frequency and compensation.

“There’s a real need for things like this for every organization — it’s just part of good governmental stewardship and oversight,” said council member Ben Nadolski. “But I’d just make the comment that there’s a lot of responsibility that comes with this committee. The way we define the role and the expectations we set for those we select is going to be very important.”

Source: www.standard.net

Author: MITCH SHAW Standard-Examiner


Economy of Saudi Arabia - Wikipedia

Economy of Saudi Arabia – Wikipedia

Riyadh, the financial center of Saudi Arabia

Fiscal year

Trade organizations

Country group

  • Developing/Emerging[1]
  • High-income economy[2]
  • 18th (nominal, 2019)
  • 17th (PPP, 2019)
  • GDP growth

  • 2.4% (2018) 0.3% (2019e)
  • -6.8% (2020f) 3.1% (2021f)[5]
  • GDP per capita

    GDP per capita rank

  • 39th (nominal, 2019)
  • 14th (PPP, 2019)
  • GDP by sector

  • Agriculture: 2.6%
  • Industry: 44.2%
  • Services: 53.2%
  • (2017 est.)[3]
  • Inflation (CPI)

    Gini coefficient

    Human Development Index

    Labor force

  • 13.8 million (2017 est.)[3]
  • 3.1 million Saudis, 10.7 million non-Saudis[3]
  • Labor force by occupation

  • agriculture: 6.7%
  • industry: 21.4%
  • services: 71.9%
  • (2005 est.)[3]
  • data are for total population; unemployment among Saudi nationals is more than double[3]
  • Main industries

    • Crude oil production
    • petroleum refining
    • petrochemicals
    • ammonia
    • industrial gases
    • sodium hydroxide
    • cement
    • fertilizer
    • plastics
    • metals
    • ship repair
    • aircraft repair
    • construction

    Ease-of-doing-business rank

    Export goods

    Main export partners

  • (2017)[3]
  • Import goods

    Main import partners

  • (2017)[3]
  • Current account

    Gross external debt

    Public debt

    Budget balance

    Credit rating

  • Standard & Poor’s:[10]
  • A- (Domestic)
  • A- (Foreign)
  • A (T&C Assessment)
  • Outlook: Stable
  • Moody’s:
  • A1
  • Outlook: Stable
  • Fitch:
  • A+
  • Outlook: Stable
  • Foreign reserves

    Main data source: CIA World Fact Book
    All values, unless otherwise stated, are in US dollars.

    a bewildering (at least to outsiders) combination of a feudal fealty system and a more modern political patronage one. At every level in every sphere of activity, Saudis maneuver through life manipulating individual privileges, favors, obligations, and connections. By the same token, the government bureaucracy is a maze of overlapping or conflicting power center under the patronage of various royal princes with their own priorities and agendas to pursue and dependents to satisfy.[25]

  • Increasing the real estate sector contribution from GDP five per cent to 10 per cent annually.[87]
  • Supporting the construction of 1.5 million homes by providing the required private capital.[87]
  • Establishing partnerships with private sector developers to develop government land for housing projects.
  • Establishing fast-track licenses and special finance packages to encourage private sector investment in housing projects.
  • Saudi Arabian exports in 2006

  • World Trade Organization (WTO)[98]
  • International Monetary Fund (IMF)[99]
  • International Chamber of Commerce (ICC)[100]
  • International Organization for Standardization (ISO)[101]
  • World Customs Organization (WCO)[102]
  • Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)[103]
  • has to complete innumerable applications and documents at multiple layers of multiple ministries, which invariably requires seeking favors from various patronage networks and accumulating obligations along the way, most probably including having to hire less-than-competent dependents of his patrons. Then, for any business of any size, government contracts, not private competition, are the financial lifeblood. So this means more patrons, more favors, and more obligations. Not surprisingly, Saudi businesses that can compete outside the protected Saudi market are few.[122]

    • List of Saudi cities by GDP per capita
  • Tripp, Harvey; North, Peter (2003). Culture Shock, Saudi Arabia. A Guide to Customs and Etiquette. Singapore; Portland, Oregon: Times Media Private Limited.
  • Tripp, Harvey; North, Peter (2009). CultureShock! A Survival Guide to Customs and Etiquette. Saudi Arabia (3rd ed.). Marshall Cavendish.
    • Niblock, Tim (2007). The political economy of Saudi Arabia. Routledge. ISBN 0-415-42842-4.
  • “Saudi Arabia”. The World Factbook. Central Intelligence Agency.
  • Saudi Arabia Economic Development at Curlie
  • Saudi Arabia Export, Import, Trade Balance
  • Source: en.wikipedia.org


    What stock-market investors will be watching for in first Trump-Biden debate


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