Pricey PLUG Stock Could Keep Moving Higher, or Attract a Buyer

Pricey PLUG Stock Could Keep Moving Higher, or Attract a Buyer

Continuing investor enthusiasm for hydrogen and fuel cell stocks may provide more gains for PLUG stock, which looks attractive here. Stock in high-end EV maker, Nio, popped 26% on Wednesday. With its rapidly growing sales, high product quality, and investments in the future its expensive shares could keep rising DiamondPeak stock represents hot trends in SPACs and EVs that have markets interested. But there are better EV plays in the stock market. /PRNewswire/ — Cincinnati Financial Corporation (Nasdaq: CINF) today announced that its consolidated third-quarter results are expected to include pretax… Even assuming 35% annual free cash flow growth over the next decade, Needham analysts say Tesla stock is extremely overvalued. Press releaseStockholmOctober 15, 2020 Maha Energy AB (publ) (“Maha”, or the “Company”) announce partial restoration to the revised 2020 investment…

Investors in Plug Power (NASDAQ:PLUG) are having a great year, PLUG stock is up about 450%. Since the lows seen in early spring the shares have increased more than an eye-popping 550%.

These rapid moves have made Plug Power a momentum stock. Whenever there is headline news on alternative energy sources and hydrogen cells, daytraders flock to PLUG stock.

Shares of the hydrogen fuel cell maker are potentially expensive at these levels, but shareholders could also be betting on more good news from Plug Power, such as a strategic partnership or even a takeover. Therefore, those investors who are able to spare risk capital may consider buying the dips in PLUG stock.

According to the U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), “a fuel cell uses the chemical energy of hydrogen or another fuel to cleanly and efficiently produce electricity.

Recent research titled “The driving power of the electron,” and published in the Journal of Physics highlights, “electricity stored in Li-ion batteries or made available by hydrogen fuel cells onboard, is becoming the energy form powering the mobility of vehicles, including: cars, buses, trucks, boats and ships.”

Authors Mario Pagliaro and Francesco Meneguzzo further state:

“Thanks to the high energy density of compressed and liquid hydrogen and good energy efficiency of today’s fuel cells, compressed hydrogen and fuel cells give unprecedented high range and very short refuelling time… When compared to Li-ion batteries, hydrogen fuel cells are better suited to power heavy-duty vehicles, including trucks and ships… Growth has been due to increasing demand from all main fuel cell applications including forklifts powered by H2 used by large e-commerce and hypermarket companies in their high-throughput distribution centers… An hydrogen-powered forklift is charged in minutes instead of hours.”

Therefore, we can expect to hear more about the technology in the coming quarters. Market participants continue to focus on the growth potential in the sector, affecting the shares of businesses in the industry.

One of those companies in this space is Plug Power. It provides hydrogen fuel cell turnkey solutions for the electric mobility and stationary power markets. Its core market is material handling industry, such as forklifts.

Latham, New York-based Plug Power was founded in 1997. Several of its customers include Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), Kroger (NYSE:KR), SuperValu (a wholly owned subsidiary of United Natural Foods (NYSE:UNFI), Walmart (NYSE:WMT), Wegmans and Europe-based Aryzta. These companies have seen their businesses increase during the pandemic days. As a result, PLUG stock has also benefited.

In August, the company released Q2 results, and beat expectations. However, the company has never recorded a profit throughout its life.

Furthermore, the group’s cash burn remains at record levels. Continuing losses and increases in working capital meant free cash flow for the first half of 2020 was negative by over $100 million. Yet, so far in the year, investors have simply bypassed the lack of profits.

In September, hydrogen fuel cells as an alternative energy source got more attention. General Motors (NYSE:GM) announced a partnership with Nikola (NASDAQ:NKLA), which concentrates on hydrogen fuel cell trucks.

Nikola is currently under investigation by the SEC, due to potential misleading claims made by its founder Trevor Milton. Yet GM’s involvement could put the company on the road to success.

Could there be a similar deal in store for Plug Power? As alternative energy sources get more attention, it is not a fat-fetched expectation the company may be acquired another car company or one of Plug Power’s current customers.

From a fundamental view, Plug Power stock is expensive. However, the market’s risk appetite in alternative fuel sources is fueling not only PLUG stock but many others, including even pre-revenue companies. Many now wonder if a bubble is fast developing in this space.

Plug Power will report earnings in early November. If you are not yet a shareholder, you may decide to wait on the sidelines. Study the metrics before committing capital into the business would be important.

We believe PLUG stock is a high risk/high growth opportunity. It is possible that many investors will take short-term profits soon. However, it is also foreseeable that the company is a takeover candidate. Therefore, potential investors with risk capital may regard the declines in PLUG stock as opportunity to go long Plug Power shares.

They may also consider buying an exchange-traded fund (ETF) that includes PLUG stock, too. Examples include the iShares Global Clean Energy ETF (NASDAQ:ICLN), the ALPS Clean Energy ETF (BATS:ACES) or the SPDR S&P Kensho Smart Mobility ETF (NYSEARCA:HAIL).

On the date of publication, Tezcan Gecgil did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article.

Tezcan Gecgil has worked in investment management for over two decades in the U.S. and U.K. In addition to formal higher education in the field, she has also completed all 3 levels of the Chartered Market Technician (CMT) examination. Her passion is for options trading based on technical analysis of fundamentally strong companies. She especially enjoys setting up weekly covered calls for income generation. She also publishes educational articles on long-term investing.

Source: investorplace.com

Author: By

Tezcan Gecgil, InvestorPlace Contributor


Nio Stock Popped 26% — 3 Reasons It’s Not Too Late To Buy

Nio Stock Popped 26% — 3 Reasons It’s Not Too Late To Buy

BEIJING, CHINA – SEPTEMBER 28: A NIO EP9 autonomous electric vehicle on display during the 2020 … [+] Beijing International Automotive Exhibition at China International Exhibition Center on September 28, 2020 in Beijing, China. (Photo by Lintao Zhang/Getty Images)

Stock in Shanghai-based Nio, a maker of premium electric vehicles, has soared in 2020. I see three reasons that trend could continue:

  • Soaring sales
  • Expectations-beating results
  • High product quality
  • Wednesday 26% Pop

    Nio stock popped on October 14 — up 26% — due to a bullish report from JP Morgan. According to Barron’s, analyst Nick Lai upgraded Nio stock from Hold to Buy with a price target of $40 — nearly twice where the stock traded before Lai’s Buy recommendation.

    Nio is expected to be a winner in the “premium” space of the Chinese EV market. Lai expects EVs to control 20% of the Chinese vehicle market in 2025 — up from less than 5% now, driven by “a change in consumer preferences and a reduction in EV prices as battery costs fall,” according to BusinessInsider.

    Nio share price rise has outpaced Tesla’s in 2020. As of October 14, Nio stock had risen 612% — well-ahead of Tesla’s 375% rise. Nio’s valuation — at 24.4 times sales — vastly exceeds that of Tesla (17.1) — a dollar of sales of both is worth way more than GM’s 0.39.

    Nio’s Soaring Sales

    Nio’s quarterly and monthly sales are setting records. According to CleanTechnica, Nio delivered 4,708 vehicles in September — up 133% from the year before. In the third quarter, its deliveries increased 154% to 12,206 and its deliveries in the first nine months of 2020 have more than doubled to 26,375.

    Nio distinguishes itself from competitors by enabling consumers to swap depleted batteries for new fully-charged ones at 143 automated battery swapping stations located in 64 cities.

    This so-called “battery as a service” model gives drivers the ability to get the latest battery technology and to save time they would have spent at a charging station — since the time it takes to swap batteries is “about the same as filling the gas tank of a conventional gasoline or diesel powered car,” according to CleanTechnica.

    Nio’s Expectation Beating Results

    Nio’s latest results were pleasing to investors — it beat and raised.

    More specifically, according to Reuters, on August 11 Nio reported that its second quarter revenue more than doubled to 3.72 billion — 220 million yuan more than expected.

    Nio forecast revenue between 4.05 billion yuan and 4.21 billion yuan ($606.68 million) for the third quarter — well ahead of Refinitiv’s analyst consensus of 3.53 billion yuan.

    Nio’s loss was less than expected — excluding items, Nio posted a loss of 1.08 yuan per American depository share (ADS) — 76 yuan per ADS lower than analysts had expected.

    CEO William Bin Li said, “The current constraints on the productions will be lifted in the near future and we are confident that our production capacity can meet the accelerated demand of our models,” according to Reuters.

    Nio’s High Quality Vehicles

    Nio’s vehicles are of relatively high quality — beating Tesla. According to J.D. Power, NIO ranks highest among all brands in the battery electric vehicle (BEV) segment with 109 problems cited per 100 vehicles (PP100) followed by Tesla (113 PP100) and ORA (129 PP100). NIO’s ES6 ranked highest in the midsize BEV segment, according to J.D. Power.

    Nio excels in design and has the potential to improve in manufacturing. How so? “Both domestic and foreign startups, such as NIO and Tesla, are more outstanding in exterior design, human-machine interaction and technology innovation, while joint venture brands surpass others in manufacturing techniques,” said Eileen Ren, vice president of NEV solutions at J.D. Power China.

    Nio is also innovating when it comes to self-driving technology. According to CleanTechnica, the company has allied with Mobileye to develop “cutting edge driver assistance technologies” that would target “consumer autonomy [and will be] engineered for automotive qualification standards, quality, cost and scale.”

    Despite its exorbitant stock market valuation, if Nio can sustain its faster-than-expected growth, JP Morgan’s $40 a share price target could soon be in the rear view mirror.

    Source: www.forbes.com

    Author: Peter Cohan


    DiamondPeak Stock is One to Avoid Due to Price and Competition

    DiamondPeak Stock is One to Avoid Due to Price and Competition

    Investors curious about DiamondPeak Holdings (NASDAQ:DPHC) and DiamondPeak stock have lots to mull over. But the primary question comes down to whether investors believe that Lordstown Motors’ EV Endurance truck is going to be a big seller. 

    Image of a map showing Lordstown's location.

    Source: SevenMaps/ShitterStock.com

    Several EV trucks are currently in the works from multiple manufacturers. However, none yet is focused on the same niche that Lordstown is – fleet pickups. That is this company’s defining factor. 

    Yes, electric vehicles are trending and gaining ground vis-a-vis internal combustion vehicles. And consumers, certainly those in the U.S who buy lots of trucks, also want a pickup truck EV option.

    Further, SPACs have been a hot method by which to raise capital. All of this puts Lordstown Motors’s Endurance and DiamondPeak stock in a position to capitalize. But ultimately the question becomes if the Lordstown Endurance will sell well in its chosen vertical. 

    An investment into DiamondPeak stock is one which will become an investment into a new stock under the Nasdaq ticker RIDE once the reverse IPO occurs later this year. Exact dates have not been released but there has been recent news on that front. 

  • 7 Big Tech Stocks to Buy for Blockchain and Crypto Exposure
  • Shares of DPHC jumped roughly 10% going into the weekend of Oct. 10-11 as the companies announced plans for a meeting and vote approving the merger. The meeting will occur on Oct. 22. 

    So, it looks highly likely that the merger will go through as planned. This is good news for investors, of course. But again, sales moves each and every company in the longer run once the technicalities of incorporation and funding pass. That’s what I want to focus on here with cautious optimism – potential sales in the medium term. 

    Luckily investors can make some assumptions based on news currently available. Late in September the company released news that it has received 40,000 reservations for the Endurance. The base price of the Lordstown Endurance is $52,500. The point I want to make here is that this is not guaranteed revenue by any means. That is, Lordstown investors shouldn’t expect revenues north of $2.1 billion (40,000 reservations * $52,500 base price) on the Endurance. 

    The vehicle deposit itself is $100, but I don’t know if it is refundable should a buyer change their mind. In the case that reservations are non-refundable, Lordstown has booked a more modest $4 million currently. 

    If investors imagine that those 40,000 Endurance pre-orders end up becoming legitimate orders there’s the question of actual production and delivery timelines. Lordstown is anticipating beginning production in Q3 of 2021 with the goal of delivering 2,200 Endurance trucks by the end of 2021. Based on Lordstowns’ Endurance sales roadmap 40,000 units should be delivered sometime in Q1 of 2023.

    The point I want to make here has nothing to do with manufacturing or any doubt regarding Lordstown Motors’ ability to produce Endurance trucks. The point I want to focus on is the current price of DPHC stock relative to the timeline of sales. 

    DiamondPeak stock trades near $24 currently and has eclipsed $30 per share recently. Given that sales are forecast where they are, shares look to be priced perfectly. And the shares have also more than doubled, which is going to make the markets digest them more thoroughly which can lead to a price decrease.

    Investors are right to worry that after the shine wears off following the upcoming reverse IPO that shares might fall. 

    The Lordstown Endurance is marketed as a fleet vehicle. As per the company’s website this is advantageous in that fleet sales circumvent complex retail sales networks. In addition fleet sales can of course be greater in volume as companies buy in bulk. The logic is clear. But before I get into questions regarding fleet sales, I’d like to also point out that individual consumers can purchase this vehicle, at least based on what I saw on Lordstowns’ pre-order page. 

    But back to the fleet sales strategy. Fleet sales are great from a manufacturer’s perspective. But it’s worth noting that the fleets Lordstown is looking to supplant come from Ford (NYSE:F), General Motors (NYSE:GM), and others.

    These are well-heeled organizations who not only have significant resources, but also will develop their own EV trucks in the near future. GM has plans for an EV truck as does Ford. 

    I have to imagine that Lordstown is going to make a push to build out retail sales to individuals. It’s probably already happening. What this means is that the Endurance is going to be facing pickup competitors in the form of Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) Cybertruck, Rivian’s R1T, Nikola’s (NASDAQ:NKLA) Badger, and whatever EV iterations Ford, Chevy and others release. 

    It all spells massive competition. Despite the fleet focused sales approach it looks like the Endurance is really trying to outsell these other non-fleet EV trucks as well. Investors are really buying into this when they choose to purchase DiamondPeak stock. 

    I would avoid DPHC shares for several reasons. First, I think it’s currently priced perfectly as a consequence of SPAC enthusiasm and EV enthusiasm. Second, I believe the other competitors are simply more competitive. And third, from a highly subjective point of view, I think consumers are going to prefer the styling of the Cybertruck, Rivian’s R1T and the Nikola Badger if that comes to market.

    But my own subjective styling preferences aside, I think sales expectations and production schedules indicate that share prices ought to decline some time after the shares switch to the RIDE ticker. I also think RIDE shares could very well rise when they are placed on the market.

    But that isn’t because of inherent financial fundamentals, which is why I’d stay away.

    On the date of publication, Alex Sirois did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. 

    Source: investorplace.com

    Author: By

    Alex Sirois


    Cincinnati Financial Corporation Announces Preliminary Estimate for Third-Quarter Storm Losses

    Cincinnati Financial Corporation Announces Preliminary Estimate for Third-Quarter Storm Losses

    CINCINNATI, Oct. 15, 2020 /PRNewswire/ — Cincinnati Financial Corporation (Nasdaq: CINF) today announced that its consolidated third-quarter results are expected to include pretax catastrophe losses of approximately $266 million – representing an impact on the third-quarter 2020 combined ratio of approximately 18.3 percentage points, based on estimated property casualty earned premiums.

    The August 2020 Midwest derecho caused approximately $103 million of losses, after an estimated reinsurance recovery of $17 million. Hurricane Laura caused approximately $46 million in losses, including $30 million for Cincinnati Global Underwriting Ltdsm and $12 million for Cincinnati Re®. Third-quarter estimates also include catastrophe losses from several less severe storms. The estimate for total third-quarter 2020 catastrophe losses incurred includes approximately: $128 million for the commercial lines insurance segment; $83 million for the personal lines insurance segment; $1 million for the excess and surplus lines insurance segment; $10 million for Cincinnati Re and $44 million for Cincinnati Global.

    Steven J. Johnston, chairman, president and CEO, commented: “2020 has brought many challenges, and I’m proud of the way our associates have answered the call, serving our agents and their clients with empathy and compassion. We deployed teams of our own field claims associates who volunteered to travel to the parts of our country where catastrophe struck. Through their consistent and coordinated approach, we were able to quickly review claims to determine the appropriate payment based on the policy contract. Our solid financial position ensures our ability to help the families and businesses in our agents’ communities on the road to recovery after a covered loss.”

    Estimated losses and expenses from catastrophe-related claims are expected to bring the company’s third-quarter 2020 property casualty combined ratio to approximately 102.6% to 104.6%. Net written premium growth is estimated to be approximately 3% for the quarter.

    The unaudited loss estimates and other data presented in this release is preliminary, based upon management estimates and subject to the completion of the company’s procedures for the preparation of its quarterly financial statements. As a result, further adjustments may be made between now and the time financial results for the quarter are finalized. 

    Cincinnati Financial plans to report final results for third-quarter 2020 on Monday, October 26, after the close of regular trading on the Nasdaq Stock Market. A conference call to discuss the results will be held at 11 a.m. ET on Tuesday, October 27, with a live, audio-only internet broadcast available at cinfin.com/investors.

    About Cincinnati Financial
    Cincinnati Financial Corporation offers primarily business, home and auto insurance, our main business, through The Cincinnati Insurance Company and its two standard market property casualty companies. The same local independent insurance agencies that market those policies may offer products of our other subsidiaries, including life insurance, fixed annuities and surplus lines property and casualty insurance. For additional information about the company, please visit cinfin.com.

    Mailing Address:

    Street Address:

    P.O. Box 145496 

    6200 South Gilmore Road

    Cincinnati, Ohio 45250-5496

    Fairfield, Ohio 45014-5141

    Safe Harbor
    This is our “Safe Harbor” statement under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Our business is subject to certain risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those suggested by the forward-looking statements in this report. Some of those risks and uncertainties are discussed in our 2019 Annual Report on Form 10-K, Item 1A, Risk Factors, Page 35 and Item 1A, Risk Factors in our subsequent Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q.

    Factors that could cause or contribute to such differences include, but are not limited to:

  • Effects of the COVID-19 pandemic that could affect results for reasons such as: 
  • Securities market disruption or volatility and related effects such as decreased economic activity that affect the company’s investment portfolio and book value
  • An unusually high level of claims in our insurance or reinsurance operations that increase litigation-related expenses
  • An unusually high level of insurance losses, including risk of legislation or court decisions extending business interruption insurance in commercial property coverage forms to cover claims for pure economic loss related to the COVID-19 pandemic
  • Decreased premium revenue and cash flow from disruption to our distribution channel of independent agents, consumer self-isolation, travel limitations, business restrictions and decreased economic activity
  • Inability of our workforce to perform necessary business function
  • Unusually high levels of catastrophe losses due to risk concentrations, changes in weather patterns, environmental events, terrorism incidents or other causes
  • Increased frequency and/or severity of claims or development of claims that are unforeseen at the time of policy issuance
  • Inadequate estimates, assumptions or reliance on third-party data used for critical accounting estimates
  • Declines in overall stock market values negatively affecting the company’s equity portfolio and book value
  • Prolonged low interest rate environment or other factors that limit the company’s ability to generate growth in investment income or interest rate fluctuations that result in declining values of fixed-maturity investments, including declines in accounts in which we hold bank-owned life insurance contract assets
  • Domestic and global events resulting in capital market or credit market uncertainty, followed by prolonged periods of economic instability or recession, that lead to:
  • Significant or prolonged decline in the fair value of a particular security or group of securities and impairment of the asset(s)
  • Significant decline in investment income due to reduced or eliminated dividend payouts from a particular security or group of securities
  • Significant rise in losses from surety and director and officer policies written for financial institutions or other insured entities
  • Our inability to integrate Cincinnati Global and its subsidiaries into our on-going operations, or disruptions to our on-going operations due to such integration
  • Recession or other economic conditions resulting in lower demand for insurance products or increased payment delinquencies
  • Difficulties with technology or data security breaches, including cyberattacks, that could negatively affect our ability to conduct business; disrupt our relationships with agents, policyholders and others; cause reputational damage, mitigation expenses and data loss and expose us to liability under federal and state laws
  • Disruption of the insurance market caused by technology innovations such as driverless cars that could decrease consumer demand for insurance products
  • Delays, inadequate data developed internally or from third parties, or performance inadequacies from ongoing development and implementation of underwriting and pricing methods, including telematics and other usage-based insurance methods, or technology projects and enhancements expected to increase our pricing accuracy, underwriting profit and competitiveness
  • Increased competition that could result in a significant reduction in the company’s premium volume
  • Changing consumer insurance-buying habits and consolidation of independent insurance agencies that could alter our competitive advantages
  • Inability to obtain adequate ceded reinsurance on acceptable terms, amount of reinsurance coverage purchased, financial strength of reinsurers and the potential for nonpayment or delay in payment by reinsurers
  • Inability to defer policy acquisition costs for any business segment if pricing and loss trends would lead management to conclude that segment could not achieve sustainable profitability
  • Inability of our subsidiaries to pay dividends consistent with current or past levels
  • Events or conditions that could weaken or harm the company’s relationships with its independent agencies and hamper opportunities to add new agencies, resulting in limitations on the company’s opportunities for growth, such as:
  • Downgrades of the company’s financial strength ratings
  • Concerns that doing business with the company is too difficult
  • Perceptions that the company’s level of service, particularly claims service, is no longer a distinguishing characteristic in the marketplace
  • Inability or unwillingness to nimbly develop and introduce coverage product updates and innovations that our competitors offer and consumers expect to find in the marketplace
  • Actions of insurance departments, state attorneys general or other regulatory agencies, including a change to a federal system of regulation from a state-based system, that:
  • Impose new obligations on us that increase our expenses or change the assumptions underlying our critical accounting estimates
  • Place the insurance industry under greater regulatory scrutiny or result in new statutes, rules and regulations
  • Restrict our ability to exit or reduce writings of unprofitable coverages or lines of business
  • Add assessments for guaranty funds, other insurance–related assessments or mandatory reinsurance arrangements; or that impair our ability to recover such assessments through future surcharges or other rate changes
  • Increase our provision for federal income taxes due to changes in tax law
  • Increase our other expenses
  • Limit our ability to set fair, adequate and reasonable rates
  • Place us at a disadvantage in the marketplace
  • Restrict our ability to execute our business model, including the way we compensate agents
  • Adverse outcomes from litigation or administrative proceedings
  • Events or actions, including unauthorized intentional circumvention of controls, that reduce the company’s future ability to maintain effective internal control over financial reporting under the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002
  • Unforeseen departure of certain executive officers or other key employees due to retirement, health or other causes that could interrupt progress toward important strategic goals or diminish the effectiveness of certain longstanding relationships with insurance agents and others
  • Events, such as an epidemic, natural catastrophe or terrorism, that could hamper our ability to assemble our workforce at our headquarters location
  • Further, the company’s insurance businesses are subject to the effects of changing social, global, economic and regulatory environments. Public and regulatory initiatives have included efforts to adversely influence and restrict premium rates, restrict the ability to cancel policies, impose underwriting standards and expand overall regulation. The company also is subject to public and regulatory initiatives that can affect the market value for its common stock, such as measures affecting corporate financial reporting and governance. The ultimate changes and eventual effects, if any, of these initiatives are uncertain.

    SOURCE Cincinnati Financial Corporation

    www.cinfin.com

    Source: www.prnewswire.com

    Author: Cincinnati Financial Corporation


    Analysts Assert Tesla Stock Needs A 10-Year Breather

    Analysts Assert Tesla Stock Needs A 10-Year Breather

    Back in July, I said the biggest risk for Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) investors wasn’t a Tesla stock crash, but that the bubble would result in 10 to 15 years of underperformance.

    Tesla (TSLA) logo on city building at night

    The idea behind that prediction is that Tesla is not a scam —  it’s just extremely overvalued, gaining about 750% in the past year. Eventually, the company’s actual growth will likely catch up to its stock price. But investors could be disappointed by how long that realignment may take.

    In a new research note, Needham analyst Rajvindra Gill says he can’t justify the current Tesla stock valuation, even by looking 10 years into the future.

    Many Tesla bulls I talk to seem to approach Tesla (and CEO Elon Musk) with more blind faith than objective analysis. On the flipside, the bears alleging that Tesla is a fraud are even more unhinged.

    In reality, Tesla is a great growth company. And that great company just happens to have a stock price that is absolutely ridiculous.

    This phenomenon is not unique to Tesla. I’ve previously compared the company to Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) during the height of the dot-com bubble back in 2000. From 2000 to 2015, Microsoft reported impressive revenue growth. Yet it took more than 15 years for its business to grow into its absurd bubble valuation.

    Gill doesn’t doubt Tesla’s growth story even a little bit. In fact, he is calling for 21% compound annual revenue growth for the company through 2029. In a Needham analyst note from Oct. 12, he says:

    “Based on our estimates, this would imply Tesla becomes the #1 car manufacturer by units sold at approximately 4 million cares (based on today’s levels) at ~$41k blended ASP (approx $35k equivalent today).”

    Needham is also projecting 35% CAGR in free cash flow for Tesla over the next decade. But Gill still can’t find the upside for Tesla stock.

    “Our 2029 base case implies a share price of $365 or 14% downside at current levels when discounting 10-years of FCF back to today’s levels,” he concludes.

    Understandably, Needham has an “underperform” rating for Tesla stock.

    Yes, Tesla has an excellent long-term growth opportunity. But the 2020 electric vehicle bubble has made the company untouchable as an investment.

    Tesla stock investors hate to compare the stock to other auto stocks. Fine. They say the company is closer to Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), which started by selling hardware and transitioned its growth story to a services model. Fine. Let’s look back at Apple’s history.

    In the past 20 years, Apple’s revenue has gone up more than 4,000%. That’s some pretty crazy long-term growth. During that 20-year stretch, Apple stock’s single best year was an over 200% gain back in 2004. Tesla is up 772% in the past year alone. I hate to break it to Tesla investors, but Apple reported 39% revenue growth in 2004.  Tesla’s revenue growth in the last four quarters has been 3%.

    In fact, Gill points out that pretty much the only thing that has changed about the company’s profile in the past year has been its share price. He points out that the cost to buy Tesla increased by 386% from July 2019 to March 2020. During that stretch, consensus analyst estimates for 2021 Tesla revenue actually dropped by 13%.

    I wish all the best for Elon Musk and Tesla stock investors. The company will likely gain a significant share of the global auto market over the next decade by putting up some world-class growth numbers. But its stock price will also lag the S&P 500 during that period.

    Share price can become detached from reality in the short-term. Just ask investors who bought Microsoft shares back in 2000. However, fundamentals always have a way of catching up to a stock — even if it takes a while.

    As Laura Gonzalez, associate professor of finance at California State University, Long Beach, wrote in an email to InvestorPlace:

    “Tesla has overcome numerous obstacles and there is demand for alternatives to traditional automobiles. However, in order to maintain a high price-to-book ratio charismatic leadership needs to be paired with expectations of stability based on predictable behavior. ”

    It’s great that so many young investors are learning about stocks by investing in the brands they love. I just hope that they don’t miss out on the 10 to 15 years of gains by buying Tesla stock at a bubble valuation.

    On the date of publication, Wayne Duggan did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article.

    Wayne Duggan has been a U.S. News & World Report Investing contributor since 2016 and is a staff writer at Benzinga, where he has written more than 7,000 articles. He is the author of the book “Beating Wall Street With Common Sense,” which focuses on investing psychology and practical strategies to outperform the stock market.

    Source: investorplace.com

    Author: By

    Wayne Duggan, InvestorPlace Contributor


    Maha Energy AB (publ) (“Maha”, or the “Company”) announce partial restoration to the revised 2020 investment capital plan and comments on 2020 production guidance

    Maha Energy AB (publ) (“Maha”, or the “Company”) announce partial restoration to the revised 2020 investment capital plan and comments on 2020 production guidance

    Press release
    Stockholm
    October 15, 2020

    Maha Energy AB (publ) (“Maha”, or the “Company”) announce partial restoration to the revised 2020 investment capital plan and comments on 2020 production guidance

    • 2020 annual average production rate is expected to land between 3,700 – 4,000 BOEPD
    • 2020 Investment Capital Plan is increased by US$ 8.7 m
    • Year-end expected daily production rate of 5,200 – 5,700 BOEPD

    2020 Annual Production Guidance
    Due to effects from Covid-19, the Company currently expects the 2020 annual average production volumes to land at about 5% below the lower end of the previously communicated guidance of 4,000 – 5,000 BOEPD.  Effects from Covid-19 still impact ‘on the ground’ logistics and personnel movements in Brazil, which in turn has a direct impact on production uptime. 

    “2020 has been a tough year so far and our production capacity has been affected by the Covid-19 pandemic. Although Covid-19 continues to impact all aspects of our operations, I am pleased to announce that we are increasing our investment pace to further grow production in Brazil into 2021 and beyond. With this increase in investment we expect to end 2020 with a daily production rate between 5,200 – 5,700 BOEPD.” said Jonas Lindvall, CEO of Maha Energy AB.

    2020 Investment Capital Plan
    In light of the higher than budgeted oil price, and the subsequent stabilization of the oil market, the Company has decided to partially restore the 2020 revised Investment Capital Plan (as communicated on 22 May, 2020) as follows:

  • Drill and complete the Tie-2 well (TS-1) well during Q4.
  • Drill and complete the Tie-3 well (TS-2) well during Q4.
  • Resume testing operations on Maha-1 (7TTG-3D-SES) at Tartaruga in Q4.
  • Undertake a recompletion of GTE-4 to restore Agua Grande (AG) zone production.
  • Complete the previously announced work program in the Illinois Basin, of 1 production well plus complete a drilled-but-uncompleted well.
  • Commence various facility support projects at Tie and Tartaruga.
  • With the completion of the revised work program described above; the Company expects to end 2020 with a daily production rate in the range of 5,200 – 5,700 BOEPD.

    The additional capital projects now included in 2020 is estimated at US$ 8.7 m bringing the total 2020 capital spend to US$ 24.2 million for the year. Funding of the Capital Plan is through Company cash on hand and operating cash flow.

    Investment Capital Plan Details

    Tie-2 & Tie-3 – Tie Field
    Tie-2 is expected to be completed by 15 November and production from this well is expected by 1 December.  Tie-3 (water injector) will be drilled immediately after the Tie-2 well is completed and will provide important reservoir pressure support.

    GTE-4 – Tie Field
    The GTE-4 well was converted to a dual pumping well during the second quarter this year.  A subsequent well test proved inflow restrictions in the AG zone which was ultimately resolved, but unfortunately during the pump installation, a blanking sleeve became stuck in the well.  Depending on rig availability and associated manpower, a workover is now scheduled during November to recomplete and restore the GTE-4 well to a comingled producer.

    Maha-1 (7TTG-3D-SES) – Tartaruga Field
    The Maha-1 well testing operations were suspended in March due to Covid-19 impedements.  The Company will resume testing operations later this month.  Once tests are completed, which are expected at the end of November, the Company will communicate well test results and place the well on production.

    Illinois Basin
    The Company has contractual obligations to drill one production well and to complete an already drilled-but-uncompleted well before the end of the year.

    This information is such information that Maha Energy AB (publ) is obliged to make public pursuant to the EU Market Abuse Regulation. The information was submitted for publication, through the agency of the contact person set out above, 02:00 a.m. CET on 15 October, 2020.

    For more information, please contact:        

    Jonas Lindvall (CEO)
    Tel: +46 8 611 05 11        
    Email: jonas@mahaenergy.ca

    or

    Victoria Berg (Investor Relations)
    Tel: +46 8 611 05 11      
    Email: victoria@mahaenergy.ca

    Maha in Brief

    Maha Energy AB is a Swedish public limited liability company. FNCA Sweden AB has been engaged as Certified Adviser and can be contacted at info@fnca.se or +46-8-528 00 399. The Company’s auditors are Deloitte. The Company’s predecessor Maha Energy Inc. was founded in 2013 in Calgary, Canada, by Jonas Lindvall and Ron Panchuk. In May 2016, the new group was formed with Maha Energy AB as parent company for purposes completing an initial public offering on the Nasdaq First North Sweden stock exchange. Jonas Lindvall, CEO and Managing Director, has 30 years of international experience in the oil and gas industry, starting his career with Lundin Oil during the early days of E&P growth.  After 6 years at Shell and Talisman, Jonas joined, and helped secure the success of, Tethys Oil AB. Maha’s strategy is to target and develop underperforming hydrocarbon assets on global basis. The Company operates four oil fields, Tartaruga and Tie in Brazil, Powder River (LAK Ranch) and Illinois basins in the United States For more information, please visit our website www.mahaenergy.ca.

    Stockholm, SWEDEN

    logo.png

    Formats available:

    Source: www.globenewswire.com

    Author: Maha Energy AB


    Pricey PLUG Stock Could Keep Moving Higher, or Attract a Buyer


    Leave a Comment