Handicapping the market from here — what history tells us about the odds the comeback continues

Handicapping the market from here — what history tells us about the odds the comeback continues

Can history help handicap where markets head from here after the extraordinary path stocks have taken so far this year? Rawson Developers’ sale of more than 100 new residential units this week shows that the residential property market remains alive, but for how long? Markets need to be more “skeptical” about each vaccine announcement. The LA Chargers could be a trade partner for Cleveland Browns tight end David Njoku. Come to Bolt Beat for all your Los Angeles Chargers rumors and news! Jul 03, 2020 (AmericaNewsHour) —
The Global In-Memory Analytics Market was valued at USD 1.08 billion in 2016 and is projected to reach USD 8.2 billion by… The Packers are unproven at tight end, but does attempting to trade for Browns TE David Njoku make sense?

A view of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) is seen at Wall Street on June 29, 2020 in New York City.

Angela Weiss | AFP | Getty Images

Can history help handicap where markets head from here after the extraordinary path stocks have taken so far this year?

 The violence and velocity of the crash-and-surge moves in the major indexes has placed this market in rare company, with relatively few precedents to mine for hints of what has tended to come next.

Yet, predictably, the probabilities don’t line up in a single direction. So an investor trying to decipher the lessons of the past has to play a game of Always, Usually, Seldom and Never, classifying the evidence accordingly. 

The S&P 500 rebounded by nearly 20% in the second quarter, only the tenth calendar quarter since World War II when it gained more than 15%. Following the prior nine quarters, the index was always up the following three months, for an average of 9%, with the smallest advance an impressive 4%, according to Bespoke Investment Group.

In the ferocious bounce and follow-through rally off the climactic market low in late March, a series of rare “breadth thrust” readings were registered, measuring intense momentum and voracious demand for virtually every stock following the comprehensive liquidation through March.

One of these readings, tracked for years by Ned Davis Research, comes when at least 90% of all S&P 500 stocks surpass their 50-day moving average. This threshold was reached May 26. In the prior 19 times this has occurred since 1967, the S&P was always up over the following year, by an average of 17%.

Unanimity is rare when it comes to historical patterns, so these so-far foolproof setups have won plenty of attention and lend some weight to the “don’t fight the tape” bullish case.

Still, these analyses cover very narrowly defined conditions, and neither ten nor 19 instances from the past remotely approaches a statistically robust sample.

Then there’s the fact that they don’t quite fit with some circumstances that usually occur in situations like the one this market is in.

Let’s not forget that the power and persistence of the recent rally has come in part as a not-quite-equal reversal of similarly rare downside momentum and oversold conditions of the preceding collapse.

This whipsaw, on a net basis, left the S&P 500 down by about 4% year to date through six months. The index has been negative at the halfway mark 35% of all years since 1928. Over the second half of those years, the index usually delivers subpar returns. On average, according to Cornerstone Macro technical strategist Carter Worth, the second half of these years produced a 0.7% gain. Of the past six times the S&P was underwater at June 30 (2000, 2001, 2002, 2005, 2008 and 2010), it fell further four times, though the last instance in 2010 the S&P ran higher by 22% in the second half to salvage the year for the bulls.

Speaking of usually, July is usually a good month for stocks, the best of the summer months, showing a gain three-quarters of the time the past 20 years.

Then again, while stocks usually do fairly well in election years, they usually do quite poorly leading up to an election in years when the incumbent party loses the White House, as this chart from LPL Financial shows. Of course, no one knows how the election will break, even as President Trump trails in the polls, but the market usually seems to foretell the result. Or maybe it’s all just coincidence.

Then again, even if the political setup is a challenge, this might be an offsetting comfort to bulls: The market has seldom regained more than three-quarters of a bear-market-sized decline – as the S&P 500 has now after a 35% crash – and failed to continue rising back to and above the old peak. In other words, such a sizable bounce has rarely ended up as a doomed bear-market rally. An exception was the initial rebound from the 1929 crash.

The market has likewise seldom followed one quarter’s 19%-plus drop with a 19%-plus rally, as it has the past two quarters. And, once again, the only other such occurrences were during the Great Depression: once in 1932 and once in 1938.

Stocks also have seldom got into serious difficulty soon after retail investor survey performed by AAII has shown more than half its respondents bearish on the equity outlook, as has repeatedly been the case during this three-month recovery.

Historical analogies such as all of the above always reliably draw the response from some people that history is now irrelevant because today’s situation is “unprecedented,” whether due to Federal Reserve activism or the vagaries of a pandemic or whatever other reason.

In general, these objections miss the point that the specific circumstances are always different, but the markets tend to metabolize information in familiar ways based on crowd psychology and the feedback loops inherent in capitalism.

Yet perhaps it makes sense at least to nod in the direction of current conditions that do seem a bit exceptional.

The S&P 500 has never been as concentrated in technology  – broadly defined – as it is today. The S&P tech sector plus FANG – Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and Google parent Alphabet – now account for more than 40% of the index. Spin this as a positive (higher valuations justified due to superior growth and profitability) or negative (extreme concentration risk in similar digital business models) as you like.

There is also a distinct rhythm to markets that, perhaps, makes it a bit more prone to producing extreme momentum readings of the sort that the bullish outlooks above are based on.

Frank Cappelleri of Instinet tracks the NYSE TICK index, a gauge of how many stocks were up or down on their last tick – a proxy for all-or-nothing order flow. Eight of the 12 lowest TICK readings in history have come this year.

And 10 of the 19 breadth-thrust readings since 1967, described above that showed a 100% one-year win rate for stocks thereafter, have occurred in the past ten years.

Does any of this matter in handicapping the market? Perhaps best to take it all as useful context, rather than prophesy — recognizing that the weight of the evidence seems to favor further upside in coming months but offers no guarantees.

Source: www.cnbc.com

Author: Michael Santoli

Cape Town shows signs that the residential property market is still alive, but for how long?

Cape Town shows signs that the residential property market is still alive, but for how long?

  • Rawson Developers launched and sold more than 100 new residential units this week. The company says demand remains high in Cape Town.
  • Ithemba Property Development says, like essential goods, affordable rental units have become resilient to income fluctuations.
  • But FNB economist John Loos says the impact is yet to be felt in the residential market.

On Monday, Rawson Developers sold more than 100 units in its new live-and-pay development in Cape Town’s southern suburbs.

Never mind that it was still in the middle of a lockdown in SA and that an increasing number of companies are announcing intentions to retrench staff.

In fact, in April, in the heart of the lockdown, the company sold out its other development in Observatory – also in Cape Town.

But Rawson Developers had to be a bit creative to boost demand. The developers guaranteed investors rental for the first year when the units are ready for occupation in 2023.

Similarly, when launching its new development this week, the company marketed some units on online deals site OneDayOnly, offering hefty discounts, including one of more than R250 000.

Also, all this is now happening online, which requires a big mindset shift. Given that property is the biggest investment most people ever make, it usually makes them uneasy about signing on the dotted line without physical interaction.

Half of the development was sold in the first day, and these aren’t necessarily cheap properties. The cheapest “micro” unit retailed at more than R1.1 million with the OneDayOnly discount, and the most expensive penthouses cost around R13 million. All 60 of the micro units were snatched up within hours.

“Cape Town has always had amazing demand. We are close to UCT, so we do get a bit of the student population coming through. This specific area of Cape Town definitely has high demand. I think a lot of other developers are probably worried and holding back till they feel more certain,” said Brad Morgan, marketing manager for Rawson Developers.

This demand in Rawson Developers’ residential units is in stark contrast to what the Covid-19 pandemic has done to the commercial property market, especially retail and office sectors, where landlords have had to cut their rent to keep tenants or live with vacant spaces as the work-from-home movement grows.

People still need to live somewhere

JSE-listed Atterbury, which has mixed-use and residential developments in Johannesburg’s inner city, said while it observed a “slight slump” in its collections during the hard lockdown, the demand for affordable residential units remained resilient and its collections have recovered to near-pre-crisis levels.

“[The] residential property market is not homogeneous, and different parts of it respond differently to different stimuli or shocks like Covid-19,” said Carel Kleynhans, director of Ithemba Property Development, one of Atterbury’s partners in the inner-city residential developments.

He said while the markets for luxury seafront property, “walk-up” flats and inner-city affordable rental would respond very differently to various economic circumstances; the company has found that in the current crisis, affordable and well-located rental accommodation acts more like “an essential good” as it is very resilient to income fluctuations.

“When times are tough, people economise on their expenditure and often move to a smaller, better-located place – but at the end of the day they still need to live somewhere,” he added.

Morgan said to sell upper-end rental units, developers need to be even more creative than they were before.

“We’ve basically created a five-star hotel living environment but in an apartment block,” said Morgan, adding that to cater for the price-conscious consumers, Rawson Developers created the 29 square metre “micro” units, but had to make them liveable by providing more sharing facilities within the development.

But residential property may yet feel the Covid-19 impact

However, John Loos, economist at FNB Commercial Property Finance, said while residential property may experience less of a dip than retail and office property, this sector of the market is still going to feel the harsh impact of Covid-19.

“I do believe that residential will see some significant full-blown decline in values, with demand weakening in response to what looks like a severe recession, employment and household income loss. Yes, the affordable segment is likely to come off less impacted than the higher end, with a greater search for affordability in times of financial pressure,” he said.

That said, Loos added that he did not believe that any segment could escape without some downturn and that individual developments didn’t quite present a picture about the overall market.

With Statistics SA’s building data showing that the number of residential units plans passed declined by 15.2% in 2019 and sharper year-on-year decline in the early months of 2020, Loos says time will tell how 2020 ends.

Source: www.news24.com

Author: Londiwe Buthelezi

Stocks Are Rallying Too Much On Vaccine News, Says This Market Expert

Stocks Are Rallying Too Much On Vaccine News, Says This Market Expert

While reports of positive data from potential coronavirus treatments have helped propel the market higher in recent months, investors are far too optimistic about a vaccine and stocks shouldn’t be rallying so much on each bit of news, warns Vital Knowledge founder Adam Crisafulli.

Markets need to be more “skeptical” about each vaccine announcement.

On Wednesday, after closing out its best quarter in decades, the stock market jumped on news that a potential coronavirus vaccine developed by Pfizer and BioNTech showed positive trial results.

“Seriously, we’re doing this again? Investors really need to stop chasing these reports,” Vital Knowledge founder Adam Crisafulli said in a note about the vaccine news.

It’s not the first time the market has rallied on reports of a possible treatment for coronavirus: This has occurred on a myriad of occasions in the last several months, as investors cheer news from companies like Moderna, Novavax and Gilead Sciences putting out positive vaccine data.

Crisafulli warns that markets are over-celebrating each bit of incremental vaccine news and there is still a long way before one gets FDA approval and becomes widely available.

He thinks the bigger issue is whether the U.S. can reach herd immunity and return to economic normalcy. 

Crisafulli points out that Dr. Anthony Fauci last week warned that a vaccine won’t be entirely effective: Many Americans will likely decline to take it and the United States will subsequently struggle to achieve herd immunity.

There are rising concerns among health experts that the Trump administration will push the FDA to issue emergency approval for at least one coronavirus vaccine drug before the November presidential election, regardless of whether the research justifies it. Markets seem increasingly confident of a vaccine securing approval in the fall, and as such, investors “should be initially skeptical about embracing any such announcement concerning a vaccine,” Crisafulli argues. “The vaccine process is being accelerated so much that critical questions are unlikely to have answers,” such as whether the treatment will have side effects or if patients will still be contagious.

Stocks recently closed out their best quarter in decades, despite a recent spike in new coronavirus cases across the country. Many states in the South and West are reporting record high numbers of cases, with more than a dozen pausing or rolling back reopening plans altogether. But the market has still bounced sharply from its coronavirus recession low point in late March: The Dow surged 18% in the second quarter, its best quarter since 1987. The S&P jumped over 20% for its best quarter since 1998. Both are still down for the year, however—the Dow by over 10% and the S&P by nearly 4%.

S&P 500 Jumps 0.5% After Pfizer Coronavirus Vaccine News (Forbes)

Dow Surges 500 Points As Investors Bet On A Coronavirus Vaccine Breakthrough (Forbes)

Investors Are Way Too Optimistic About An Economic Rebound, According To This Market Expert (Forbes)

Stocks Rally, Dow Up 500 Points After Gilead’s Coronavirus Treatment Shows ‘Positive Data’ (Forbes)

Full coverage and live updates on the Coronavirus

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Source: www.forbes.com

Author: Sergei Klebnikov

LA Chargers: Why the Bolts should attempt a trade for David Njoku

LA Chargers: Why the Bolts should attempt a trade for David Njoku

(Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images) – LA Chargers

The LA Chargers currently have one of the most promising pass-catching tight ends in the NFL right now in Hunter Henry, who is franchise-tagged for the 2020 season. However, that does not mean that the team should not explore any possible improvements, including Cleveland Browns tight end David Njoku.

ESPN NFL Insider Adam Schefter reported on Friday that Njoku has requested a trade from the Cleveland Browns and would like to be traded before training camp. According to Schefter, the Browns informed Njoku that they would try and keep him, but Njoku is intent on a trade.

If there is one area of the roster that the Browns can trade from it is the tight end position, so it is not all that surprising that Njoku has requested a trade. The Browns signed Austin Hooper to a lucrative four-year, $44 million contract this offseason. Cleveland also drafted promising dual-threat tight end, Harrison Bryant, in the fourth round of the 2020 NFL Draft.

Njoku missed 12 games last season because of a concussion and broken wrist on the same play in Week 2. Njoku only had 10 receptions for 41 yards.

But still, the Browns exercised the fifth-year option on his contract for the 2021 season. Njoku is set to make $6 million in 2021.

First of all, the cost of the trade is not going to be much. Considering the fact that Njoku only played four games last year and the Browns do not have much leverage in the situation, it is hard to see Cleveland getting much for the tight end.

Hayden Hurst was traded for a second-round pick this offseason but is younger and was coming off of a healthy season. Rob Gronkowski was traded for a fourth-round pick after being retired for a year. Realistically, Njoku falls somewhere in the middle.

A straight-up third-round pick should be the most that the Browns are getting offered for Njoku or the Chargers could even get creative and send something such as back-to-back fourth-round picks in consecutive drafts. Either way, that is not an expensive price to pay in the slightest.

Njoku would be a great fit on this team as he adds another weapon to the Chargers’ offense. Sure, the team has Henry, but the Bolts do not really have a second pass-catching tight end option to use in two tight end sets in the red zone and on short-yardage situations.

MORE: Predicting the top 25 Chargers in 2020 by PFF grade

Virgil Green is great as a blocking specialist but he is not a receiving threat. Donald Parham is intriuging and exciting, but the team should not be fully banking off of an XFL standout that did not initially make the NFL.

Plus, Njoku’s contract gives the team a fallback option. His $6 million next season is not going to restrict anything financially and if the tea cannot agree to an extension with Hunter Henry then they have Njoku for the 2021 season. From there, they could either commit to Njoku in the long-term for a shorter price or at least buy themselves another year to pivot at the position.

Despite only playing four games last season, Njoku has shown some really promising signs as a pass-catching tight end. He was targeted 88 times in 2018, hauling in 56 receptions for 639 yards and four touchdowns. That is right on the same level that Henry has been on in his career thus far.

And as an added bonus, Njoku also has familiarity with Tyrod Taylor. Taylor spent time with Njoku on the Cleveland Browns in 2018 and in his three starts (one of which he went out with injury), Taylor targeted Njoku 18 times.

A third-round pick might be pushing it for the LA Chargers but if the team can work out a deal for Njoku that includes something like back-to-back fourth-round picks then it would absolutely be worth exploring.

Source: boltbeat.com

Author: by Jason Reed 14 hours ago Follow @EatYourReedies

In-Memory Analytics Market Estimated To Experience A Hike in Growth Global Industry Size, Growth, Segments, Revenue, Manufacturers 2020-2025

In-Memory Analytics Market Estimated To Experience A Hike in Growth Global Industry Size, Growth, Segments, Revenue, Manufacturers 2020-2025

In-memory analytics is enterprise architecture framework solution used to enhance business intelligence reporting by querying data from system memory. It works by increasing the speed, performance and reliability when querying data. With the evolution of BI and RAM hardware technology, more BI platforms are available and affordable, including in-memory analytics tools used to facilitate enterprise decision making. Benefits of In-memory analytics include aEUR” high performance speed, cost efficient, and reduces the dependence on IT expert.

The Final Report will cover the impact analysis of COVID-19 on this industry:

Download Sample of This Strategic Report:

Sample Infographics:

Market Dynamics:
1. Market Drivers
1.1 Rising adoption by small and medium businesses
1.2 Improved security and scalability with cloud-based In-memory analytics
1.3 Low costs for main memory hardware
1.4 Increasing volume of data
1.5 Rising trend for self-service BI tools
1.6 Adoption of digital transformation using real-time data analytics
2. Market Restraints
2.1 Issues with management and maintenance of data quality
2.2 Lack of technical expertise to deploy BI applications
2.3 Poor knowledge about the technology across industries

Market Segmentation:
The Global In-Memory Analytics Market is segmented on the application, organization size, component, deployment model, vertical, and region.

1. Application:
1.1 Product and process management
1.2 Risk management and fraud detection
1.3 Sales and marketing optimization
1.4 Supply chain optimization
1.5 Financial management
1.6 Network management
1.7 Workforce management
1.8 Predictive asset management

2. Organization Size:
2.1 Large Enterprises
2.2 Small and Medium Organizations

3. By Component:
3.1 Software
3.2 Services
3.2.1 Managed services
3.2.2 Professional services Support and maintenance services Consulting services

4. By Deployment Mode:
4.1 Cloud-based
4.2 On-premises

5. By Vertical:
5.1 Healthcare
5.2 Government and Defense
5.3 IT and Telecom
5.4 Banking, Financial Services, and Insurance (BFSI)
5.5 Transportation and Logistics
5.6 Retail and e-commerce
5.7 Manufacturing
5.8 Others

6. By Region:
6.1 North America (U.S., Canada, Mexico)
6.2 Europe (Germany, UK, France, Rest of Europe)
6.3 Asia Pacific (China, India, Japan, Rest of Asia Pacific)
6.4 Latin America (Brazil, Argentina, Rest of Latin America)
6.5 Middle East & Africa

Competitive Landscape:
The major players in the market are as follows:
1. IBM Corporation
3. Software AG
4. Information Builders, Inc.
5. Advizor Solutions, Inc.
6. Exasol
7. SAS Institute, Inc.
8. Amazon Web Services
9. Kognitio Ltd
10. Qlik Technologies, Inc.
11. Oracle Corporation
12. Activeviam
13. Hitachi Group Company
14. Microstrategy Incorporated

These major players have adopted various organic as well as inorganic growth strategies such as mergers & acquisitions, new product launches, expansions, agreements, joint ventures, partnerships, and others to strengthen their position in this market.

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Research study on the Global In-Memory Analytics Market was performed in five phases which include Secondary research, Primary research, subject matter expert advice, quality check and final review.
The market data was analyzed and forecasted using market statistical and coherent models. Also market shares and key trends were taken into consideration while making the report. Apart from this, other data models include Vendor Positioning Grid, Market Time Line Analysis, Market Overview and Guide, Company Positioning Grid, Company Market Share Analysis, Standards of Measurement, Top to Bottom Analysis and Vendor Share Analysis.

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Should Packers be interested in a trade for Browns TE David Njoku?

Should Packers be interested in a trade for Browns TE David Njoku?

If GM Brian Gutekunst and the Green Bay Packers are interested in adding more help in the passing game, a talented young tight end is now on the trade block.

Adam Schefter of ESPN reported Friday that Cleveland Browns tight end David Njoku, a first-round pick of the team in 2017, has officially requested a trade.

Njoku played in only four games after breaking his wrist last season, catching just five passes for 41 yards and a touchdown during a disappointing third year. The former Miami Hurricane caught 56 passes for 639 yards and four scores during a breakout second season in 2018, but now the Browns are moving forward with prized free agent Austin Hooper and fourth-round pick Harrison Bryant.

Maybe the Packers and Browns could swing another deal.

The Packers have talent but are unproven at tight end, where 2019 third-round pick Jace Sternberger is expected to take over for Jimmy Graham as the team’s top pass-catching target at the position. The group also features veteran run blocker Marcedes Lewis, third-year receiver-convert Robert Tonyan and third-round rookie Josiah Deguara, complicating the depth chart if the Packers actually wanted to add Njoku to the mix.

However, there’s little doubt Njoku would provide a jolt of pass-catching talent to the passing game. Still only 23, Njoku is a rare combination of size (6-4, 246), speed (4.64), explosiveness (40″ vertical, 11-1 broad jump) and quickness (6.97 three-cone). If he can stay healthy and his development as a player matches his physical tools, Njoku has the potential to be a difference-making player, especially as a receiver.

Aaron Rodgers hasn’t had a tight end with Njoku’s combination of athletic gifts since Jermichael Finley.

The Packers have been in search of an explosive playmaker on offense since at least last year’s trading deadline. A deal never happened, and the Packers largely ignored the passing game this offseason, swapping out Geronimo Allison for Devin Funchess and drafting Deguara in the third round. Njoku wouldn’t solve the bigger problem – a lack of proven talent at receiver – but he’d provide another athletic threat and possible mismatch player at tight end, a position coach Matt LaFleur likes to use to force the defense’s hand and provide disguise pre-snap.

Of course, there’s real risk here. Njoku is coming off a lost season, and his consistency issues – especially catching the ball – are troubling for a player of his talent. There’s clearly some untapped potential, but potential isn’t valuable until it’s actually realized, and many young talents fade away before realizing their full potential.

According to Pro Football Focus, Njoku ranks 30th in overall grade among tight ends since 2017, highlighting his room for improvement. The Packers might feel much more comfortable just going into 2020 banking on a big second-year leap from Sternberger.

Also, the Browns will likely want decent compensation for the former first-round pick, and the Packers have invested third-round picks at tight end during each of the last two drafts. Using another draft pick at the position might be too rich for Gutekunst, especially on a player with just one year left on his deal.

Still, the Packers – a team that chased after Hooper in free agency and then missed out on many of the top receivers in the draft – should be interested, especially if the Browns get to a point where moving Njoku becomes a priority.

At the right price, Njoku could give the Packers offense help at a key position while providing quarterback Aaron Rodgers with one more explosive weapon – one resembling Finley, Green Bay’s last true threat at tight end – in the passing game. Dealing for Njoku would come with risks, but the idea is worth entertaining for a team like the Packers.

Source: packerswire.usatoday.com

Author: Dan Wussow

Handicapping the market from here — what history tells us about the odds the comeback continues

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