global trade09 May, 2020, 03:32 PM IST
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Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal called upon exporters to identify their strengths, potentials and competitive advantages in specific sectors, and focus on harnessing them in the world markets. In the post-COVID era, he said, there is going to be perceptible change in the global supply-chains, and Indian exporters should be cautious.
Major importers like Germany & Japan, which have been buyers of first flush teas from Darjeeling for decades, first want to check the quality before placing order. Iran, which had bought, around 54 million kg of teas in 2019 has also started placing good orders with the tea exporters which has resulted in orthodox tea prices moving up by Rs 30 -40 per kg in comparison to last year.
The problem for India has been compounded because Bangladesh has continued to provide transit facility for goods to landlocked northeast. The issue for Dhaka is acute as it requires goods, including food items, for the Ramadan season beginning Friday, officials told ET.
The commerce and industry ministry is considering a plan to extend the Merchandise Exports from India Scheme (MEIS) till March 31, 2021. The proposal was mentioned in a letter to development commissioners of special economic zones from the Department of Commerce. ET has reviewed the letter.
WTO Director-General Roberto Azevedo said cross-border trade and investment flows have a role to play in efforts to combat the COVID-19 pandemic, and will be vital for fostering a stronger recovery once the medical emergency subsides. Global solutions are needed to address the global challenge brought about by the pandemic, he said.
A senior World Trade Organisation official has cautioned against countries pursuing policies of import substitution, which will be harmful to global trade.
Physical documents, essential for banks to honour letters of credit, are currently unavailable, with the logistics industry virtually shutting down across large swathes of the planet.
Copyright © 2020 Bennett, Coleman & Co. Ltd. All rights reserved. For reprint rights: Times Syndication Service
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Stocks expected to trade the economy’s reopening in the week ahead
Lay Guzman stands behind a partial protective plastic screen and wears a mask and gloves as she works as a cashier at the Presidente Supermarket on April 13, 2020 in Miami, Florida.
Joe Raedle | Getty Images
Investors will watch the economy’s reopening progress, as well as a series of economic reports in the coming week that will provide a look at the consumer during April as the economy shed 20.5 million jobs.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell speaks on a webcast held by the Peterson Institute on Wednesday at 9 a.m., and he will be watched closely for any new insights on the economy or Fed programs.
There are just a few earnings releases ahead, but there will be a barrage of economic reports, including consumer and producer inflation, consumer sentiment and most importantly retail sales on Friday.
Stocks were higher in the past week, even as some bond yields touched record lows. Yields move opposite price, and bonds usually move opposite stocks.
“The stock market is trading the reopening, and the bond market is doubting the vibrant pace of an economic recovery upon the reopening,” said Peter Boockvar, chief investment strategist at Bleakley Advisory Group.
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Small cap stocks and tech led the way higher in the past week. The Nasdaq jumped 6% in a week, where it wiped out its losses for the year and turned positive. The small cap Russell 2000 was up 5.5%.
The S&P 500 was up 3.5% for the week to 2,929, with tech up 6.6% and consumer discretionary stocks up 4.4%.
The bond market and stock market have both responded to the Fed’s programs that put more liquidity into the financial system, with bond rates falling and stocks rising sharply.
“Stocks just seem to be disconnected from everything else,” said Michael Schumacher, director rates at Wells Fargo. Some bond yields, like the benchmark 10-year yield, which impacts many types of loans, were slightly higher ahead of the Treasury’s record $96 billion in auctions in the coming week. But the 2-year, at a new low of 0.10%, was trading on concerns about the economy.
Market pros will look for Powell to comment on market speculation that the Fed could take its benchmark rate to a negative yield. Fed officials have said they have no interest in negative rates, which are being used by central banks in Europe and Japan. But for the first time this past week, traders drove futures on fed funds to show slightly negative rates in contracts starting in November.
“He could quash negative yields if he wants to,” said Schumacher. “The Fed has consistently argued against negative policy rates. Now there’s a chance Powell could comment on this. He’s commented about it, several times in the last six months.”
Much of the gains in the stock market have been driven by big technology companies with operations that haven’t been deeply affected by the coronavirus.
“Tech was the shutdown trade and small caps are the reopening,” said Boockvar, noting small caps are domestically focused and are sensitive to the back-to-work trade.
Apple joined the reopening trade Friday, when its stock rose after it announced it would reopen some of its U.S. stores.
“The stock market has sort of a hall pass as the months proceed and things reopen. At some point, that hall pass is going to expire” and the reopenings will have to result in rebound, Boockvar said.
Investors have been watching for anything that suggests state reopenings are stimulating activity.
Retail sales Friday will be a big focus and are expected to show sharp decline of 11%, but more like 6% when automobiles and gasoline are removed, he said.
In the oil market in the past week, crude was up as much as 24% as traders reacted to information that showed gasoline demand picking up around the U.S. States have been opening up at different speeds, and California was the latest to reopen some activity Friday.
“Some of the reason the market is up because the virus curve is bending, the economic data is showing signs of a bounce. It hasn’t here yet but you know it’s coming. It’s a global phenomenon,” said James Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Leuthold Group. He noted that China’s export numbers unexpectedly rose in April, for the first time this year.
Paulsen said he expects stocks to remain in an upswing.
“There’s a lot of value out there if you’re outside the high growth in the S&P 500,” he said, “When fear is as high as it is, that’s typically been a great time to lean toward risk assets. Gold is at a 50-year high relative to commodity prices. People are buying bonds at virtually zero yield. To me, there’s fairly defensive behavior and scared attitudes rather than the other way around.”
Strategists say the market could retest its March lows, but a good number say the bottom has been set.
“I’m getting more confident that we’ve seen the lows, and we’re starting a recovery in the stock market, but I think the volatility is going to stay there, and there will be challenges. I think the general direction is up rather than down at the moment,” said Paulsen.
Paulsen said the fear of reinfection remains, should there be a new wave of the virus. “There’s a lot of terrible things that could happen and be terrible for the stock market,” he said. “A headline could create an up or down week and then go away again. ”
“I think the rise in the stock market is really more about a lack of sellers. But I don’t think there’s a lot of buyers. If more people believed this is winding down … there could be a lot more money that’s going to come back into equities, to some extent,” Paulsen said.
Market pros are keeping an eye on yields, ahead of the government’s record sized $96 billion in auctions in the coming week for 3- and 10-year notes and 30-year bonds.
Earnings: AutoNation, Under Armour, Marriott, Cardinal Health, Choice Hotels, Cleveland-Cliffs, Mylan, ON Semiconductor, Zimmer Biomet, Simon Property Group, Ambac Financial, Datadog, Cabot, Caesars Entertainment, Tilray
Earnings: Toyota, Allianz, Duke Energy, Vodafone, Honda Motor, Ingersoll Rand, Casper Sleep
6:00 a.m. NFIB small business survey
8:30 a.m. CPI
9:00 a.m. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard
10:00 a.m. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker
2:00 p.m. Federal budget
5:00 p.m. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester
Earnings: Cisco, Jack in the Box, Tencent, Sony
8:30 a.m. PPI
9:00 a.m. Fed Chair Jerome Powell
Earnings: Brookfield Asset Management, Applied Materials, NortonLifeLock, Petrobras, Aurora Cannabis
8:30 a.m. Jobless claims
8:30 a.m. Import prices
10:00 a.m. Fed vice chairman Randal Quarles testifies before Senate Banking Committee
1:00 p.m. Minneapolis Fed president Neel Kashkari
Earnings: JD.com, VF Corp
8:30 a.m. Retail sales
8:30 a.m. Empire state manufacturing
9:15 a.m. Industrial production
10:00 a.m. JOLTS
10:00 a.m. Business inventories
10:00 a.m. Consumer sentiment
2:00 p.m. TIC data
Author: Patti Domm
NBA News, NBA Rumors, Trades, Free Agency – RealGM
Bob Myers said the Golden State Warriors plan on being “good partners” if the NBA resumes the 19-20 regular season and teams without a mathematical chance of making the playoffs are called back to play games.
Steve Kerr made controversial comments on April 28th indicating the Warriors were operating as though their season was already over despite 17 games remaining on the schedule.
“It feels like the offseason,” Kerr said then, mentioning a Zoom call he and Myers had with the players. “… It was just a chance to check in, but it was also a chance for Bob to update the players on his contact with the league and the latest news, but it also kind of felt like our annual team exit meeting. Our coaching staff has been undergoing staff evaluations, offseason plans, so we are absolutely in offseason mode right now.”
Ramona Shelburne of ESPN reports those comments particularly caused a stir among playoff teams.
“The truth is we have the worst record in the league. That’s a fact,” Myers said. “It’s hard to motivate in our unique position. But that doesn’t mean players don’t have pride and won’t come back and play and care about the league as a whole. We want to be good partners and we will be good partners.
“We’d like to see Steph [Curry] play with [Andrew] Wiggins; I think we got to see that for one game where we were hoping to see that.”
Author: May 8, 2020 9:12 PM
Global stock markets rise as China-US trade tensions ease
Oil price rises and shares end week on a high despite growing economic damage from coronavirus pandemic
Global markets rose on Friday despite mounting economic damage from the coronavirus pandemic, as tensions eased between the White House and Beijing.
Share prices on Wall Street and in Europe ended the week on a high amid rising hopes that lockdown measures could be lifted soon to reboot growth and that a full-blown global trade war could be averted.
With stock markets closed in the UK for the early May bank holiday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 380 points, or 1.6%. European markets also rallied, with Germany’s Dax index and France’s Cac up by more than 1%.
The gains came despite increasingly gloomy updates from the economy, after official US figures on Friday showed that more than 20m people lost their jobs last month and after the Bank of England warned on Thursday the British economy could shrink by the largest amount in more than three centuries this year.
Analysts said investors had already priced in the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic, and were buying shares as they anticipated lockdown measures being lifted around the world soon.
The gains also came after the US Treasury secretary, Steven Mnuchin, and US trade representative Robert Lighthizer spoke to Chinese vice-premier Liu He late on Thursday in the first trade talks between the world’s two biggest economies since January.
Amid concerns that Donald Trump would use the coronavirus pandemic to escalate the trade dispute between Washington and Beijing in retaliation for China’s handling of the pandemic, analysts said the call may signal a cooling of tensions between the two sides.
Oil markets also rallied, with the price of a barrel of crude rising by around 1% to $30. After plunging in recent weeks amid concerns over the impact on demand during the pandemic, with factories closed and international air travel grounded, the oil price ended the week up by more than 20%.
The second consecutive week of gains came amid rising hopes that the end of lockdown measures could lead to an upswing in demand for crude.
Edward Moya, senior market analyst at the trading platform Oanda, said it also reflected a belief among investors that the sharp rise in unemployment and the wider economic fallout would be temporary. “Today’s stock market rally is mostly attributed to US-China trade negotiators pledging support for the phase-1 trade deal,” he added.
Author: Richard Partington