Asian shares mostly higher on hopes for U.S. stimulus

Asian shares mostly higher on hopes for U.S. stimulus

Asian shares are mostly higher on optimism U.S. stimulus may be coming after all The Homestead Farm Market has provided fresh, locally grown produce and homemade foods to customers since 1989. Stocks rose after a flurry of Twitter posts from President Donald Trump, who announced his support for specific virus relief measures, despite saying earlier that he told negotiators to end stimulus talks until after the election. The Chicago trading software firm may be sold soon, according to a report. The company’s response: It’s always exploring new partnerships. /PRNewswire/ — Allied Market Research published a report, titled, “Electrical Steel Market by Type (Grain Oriented Electrical Steel and Non-Grain Oriented… A fiscal stimulus package could put stocks on an upward trajectory, but some strategists say the odds of that happening are rather low.

Asian shares are mostly higher on optimism U.S. stimulus may be coming after all

Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 added 0.9% to 23,636.35. South Korea’s Kospi gained 0.2% to 2,391.63. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 jumped 1.4% to 6,119.20. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 0.8% to 24,048.48. Trading was closed in Shanghai for a holiday.

Riki Ogawa of Mizuho Bank in Singapore noted that considerable uncertainty remains, given the “rollercoaster” swings in investor mood in response to signs from Trump about the stimulus.

“The on-and-off nature of the fiscal stimulus discussion in the U.S. hardly inspires lasting confidence,” Ogawa said, noting such uncertainty will continue through the presidential election campaign, and perhaps even after the vote.

The S&P 500 climbed 1.7% to 3,419.45 after Trump sent a series of tweets late Tuesday saying he’s open to sending out $1,200 payments to Americans, and to limited programs to prop up the airline industry and small businesses.

The tweets came just hours after Trump sent the market into a tailspin with his declaration that his representatives should halt talks with Democrats on a broad stimulus effort for the economy until after the election, saying House Speaker Nancy Pelosi had been negotiating in bad faith.

The stakes are high, as economists, investors and the chair of the Federal Reserve all say the economy needs another dose of support following the expiration of weekly jobless benefits and other stimulus Congress approved earlier this year.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.9%, to 28,303.46. The Nasdaq composite climbed 1.9%, to 11,364.60, despite a call by Democratic lawmakers for Congress to rein in Big Tech companies that dominate it and other indexes.

The proposal, which follows a 15-month investigation by a House Judiciary Committee panel, could make it harder for Amazon, Apple, Facebook and Google’s parent company to acquire other companies and impose new rules to safeguard competition.

Still, much of the market’s attention remains fixed on the prospects for more stimulus for the economy from Washington.

Airlines jumped to some of the day’s bigger gains after Trump singled out the industry, asking Congress to “IMMEDIATELY” approve $25 billion for them. The S&P 500 rose broadly, with technology stocks making the biggest gains. Other areas that would benefit most from a strengthening economy were also climbing, including retailers and travel-related companies.

Smaller stocks also rose more than the rest of the market, an indication of rising optimism about the economy’s prospects. The Russell 2000 index of small-cap stocks climbed 33.75 points, or 2.1%, to 1,611.04.

The 360-degree spin for Wall Street in less than 24 hours is just the latest bump in its shaky run since early last month. Investors are also worried about whether the continuing pandemic will lead governments to put more restrictions on businesses. Tensions between the United States and China are still simmering.

In energy trading, benchmark U.S. crude added 3 cents to $39.98 a barrel. Brent crude, the international standard, gained 9 cents to $42.08 a barrel.

The U.S. dollar inched down to 106.00 Japanese yen from 106.06 yen Wednesday. The euro cost $1.1766, up slightly from $1.1763.

———

AP Business Writers Stan Choe, Damian J. Troise and Alex Veiga contributed.

ABC News

Source: abcnews.go.com

Author: ABC News


As owners of Lambertville farm market look to retire, they want someone to adapt, expand the business

As owners of Lambertville farm market look to retire, they want someone to adapt, expand the business

The Closson family has finally decided to sell the 8.5 acres of land they’ve owned longer than the United States has existed as a nation.

What’s next for them? Our guess is as good as their own. “Nothing’s set. We’re going to see how it goes,” Ed Closson said.

“We don’t have any firm plans. Just one day at a time,” Debbie Closson, his wife, echoed.

Their decision to retire and sell their current home prior to establishing where their next home may be reflects the unplanned nature of the evolution of their business, Homestead Farm Market in Lambertville, which sits on the same land as their home.

Homestead Farm Market

Debbie Closson and Ed Closson, owners of Homestead Farm Market in Lambertville.Courtesy

The market is an outlet for goods ranging from local and imported produce and baked treats to flowers, plants and gardening supplies. The market also cooks and sells prepared foods and offers catering services.

But, prior to its official establishment in 1989, the market began as nothing more than a wagon located at the end of the Clossons’ driveway.

“Ed and his father were here, growing, and if you’ve ever had a backyard garden you know the excess you get,” Debbie said. “So, the intention was to sell the excess off of a wagon at the end of the drive.”

Once the Clossons began to seek proper approvals from Lambertville to sell their produce, it was the city rather than the sellers that proposed the creation of a full-fledged market.

“We wanted to do just a stand, a wagon down by the road, but the city insisted that we either build a full-time market like we did or do nothing at all,” Ed, whose family has owned the Lambertville property for over 300 years, said. “So we did what we did, and it worked out very well.”

The creation of the Clossons’ business only reflects its expansion throughout the course of over three decades.

“We just kept adding to it,” Ed said. “It started off as mainly just produce, and then the following spring we added flowers, some garden supplies, and after a few years we added the baked goods. Then ten years into it we started to prepare foods.”

Homestead Farm Market

Produce inside Homestead Farm Market in Lambertville.Courtesy

“It was driven by customer demand and access,” Debbie added. “If we would have a bunch of apples that were bruised, we would make apple bread or apple sauce or things like that. There’s always a plethora of zucchini, so we would make zucchini bread. And it became very popular.”

And the popularity of the Homestead Farm Market has not slowed down since. According to Ed and Debbie, this past year the coronavirus pandemic galvanized community members to seek different outlets for food shopping to such an extent that the couple was compelled to open the farm market — which closes every year from January to March — one week early.

“We did thrive. This year especially … small venues and small suppliers were able to meet more demands than the large grocery stores,” Debbie said. “And people didn’t want to go into a grocery store, so this year in particular we saw a huge increase in local meats because people wanted to know where their meat was coming from.”

“There was a nice increase of people early on, and a lot of those people have stuck with us,” Ed said.

The structure of the market added to its success with customers during the epidemic, Debbie added.

“We’re an open air building for most of the year, so we started in April with our doors open, which I think was a comfort factor for people who did want to come in,” Debbie said. “And we did a ton of curbside; we did delivery.”

Despite the increased profits earned by the market, Ed and Debbie recently announced their plan to retire once the farm market closes for the winter season, or on Christmas Day.

Homestead Farm Market

The Homestead Farm Market in Lambertville.Courtesy

“This is our thirty-first year, and it’s seven days a week,” Debbie said. “So it’s time to move onto the next chapter … it’s time to be more with family.”

“It was a hard decision, but we’re in our sixties, and we’re getting tired,” Ed said.

While the Clossons have yet to find a new buyer for the property, Debbie expressed her desire that whoever purchases the area will use not only the market itself but the adjoining properties — which include both her home, another historic site, and other smaller buildings — to the business’ benefit.

“Our hope and dream is that someone will come in and take over Homestead — the farm house is zoned for a (bed and breakfast), they can do farm-to-table, and enhance the market,” Closson said. “We have a couple of barns that are outbuildings; we have grain houses. I think the biggest potential and opportunity is for somebody to keep it open year-round.”

Yes it’s our baby and we grew it, but people have great ideas, and I’m sure there’s a ton of room for improvement and opportunity,” she added.” I want to see the market continue, but I look forward to seeing what somebody can do with it.”

The Clossons’ ample willingness to embrace change mirrors their reflections on what they’ll miss most about the farm market — which isn’t the property itself at all.

“Seeing the people,” Ed said.

“We’re very fortunate. We have great customers, great employees — that’s going to be the hardest for me,” Debbie said.

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Source: www.nj.com

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Caroline Fassett | NJ Advance Media for NJ.com


Stock market news live updates: Stocks rise after Trumps signals support for some virus relief

Stock market news live updates: Stocks rise after Trumps signals support for some virus relief

Stocks rose after a flurry of Twitter posts from President Donald Trump, who announced his support for specific virus relief measures, despite saying earlier that he told negotiators to end stimulus talks until after the election.

[Click here to read what’s moving markets heading into Thursday, Oct. 8]

The three major indices extended gains intraday Wednesday after dropping on Tuesday. The Dow added more than 400 points shortly before noon in New York. Airline, cruise line and lodging stocks rose as the prospects of at least some stimulus appeared back on the table. Shares of Eli Lilly (LLY) rose after the drugmaker announced it was seeking emergency use authorization from the FDA for its experimental Covid-19 antibody treatment.

“The House & Senate should IMMEDIATELY Approve 25 Billion Dollars for Airline Payroll Support, & 135 Billion Dollars for Paycheck Protection Program for Small Business,” Trump wrote in a Twitter post late Tuesday. “Both of these will be fully paid for with unused funds from the Cares Act. Have this money. I will sign now!”

Trump also added that he was “ready to sign now” a standalone bill to send another round of $1,200 stimulus checks to taxpayers.

Earlier Tuesday afternoon, Trump said in his Twitter posts that he instructed his representatives “to stop negotiating until after the election,” after which he expected to win and “pass a major Stimulus Bill that focuses on hardworking Americans and Small Business.”

Previously, investors had held onto slim hopes that lawmakers might succeed in passing another comprehensive fiscal stimulus package before Election Day on Nov. 3. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi held talks over the deal regularly over the past week, though the officials for months had failed to reconcile the discrepancies between their plans, which last stood at $2.2 trillion for House Democrats versus an about $1.6 trillion offer from Mnuchin.

Even before Trump’s announcement Tuesday afternoon, analysts at Eurasia Group said they believed passage of a pre-election stimulus package had an only 20% probability of transpiring, according to a research note Monday.

The announcement came just hours after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell issued in a speech one of his firmest calls yet for lawmakers to advance fiscal stimulus to promote the economic recovery, saying that the rebound would be “stronger and move faster if monetary policy and fiscal policy continue to work side by side to provide support to the economy until it is clearly out of the woods.”

Elsewhere, Big Tech companies including Amazon (AMZN), Apple (AAPL), Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL) and Facebook (FB) traded higher and shook off Tuesday’s declines, after the House Judiciary’s Antitrust Subcommittee released an about 450-page report describing these companies as having “expanded and exploited their power of the marketplace in anticompetitive ways.” The report outlined a wide-reaching array of measures to try and curb these companies’ power, which, if advanced into legislation, could eventually lead to breaking up parts of the companies’ businesses.

Still, some analysts said that it remains a reach for Congress in its current form to pose a meaningful threat to these corporations. However, a major shift of power to a Democratic majority in both chambers of Congress and the presidency post-election would raise the likelihood of more pressure, according to WedBush analyst Dan Ives.

“Absent a legislative fix, we do not see meaningful change in regulation for now,” Ives said in a note late Tuesday. “We likely do not see Congress agreeing on legislation unless both houses of Congress and the Presidency are controlled by the same party, as the parties have had difficulty reaching consensus on more pressing issues. However, a potential ‘blue wave’ in November would change the game on this front and make a formidable force going after antitrust law changes with breakups possibly on the radar.”

Here were the main moves in markets as of 4:05 p.m. ET:

  • S&P 500 (^GSPC): +58.50 (+1.74%) to 3,419.45

  • Dow (^DJI): +530.70 (+1.91%) to 28,303.46

  • Nasdaq (^IXIC): +210.00 (+1.88%) to 11,364.60

  • Crude (CL=F): -$0.65 (-1.60%) to $40.02 a barrel

  • Gold (GC=F): -$18.80 (-0.98%) to $1,890.00 per ounce

  • 10-year Treasury (^TNX): +4.3 bps to yield 0.7850%

The Federal Reserve released meeting minutes from its Sept. 15-16 meeting Wednesday afternoon, which shed more light on central bank officials’ concerns that the economic recovery might be curbed in absence of further support from Congress.

“Indeed, many participants noted that their economic outlook assumed additional fiscal support and that if future fiscal support was significantly smaller or arrived significantly later than they expected, the pace of the recovery could be slower than anticipated,” according to the meeting minutes.

The minutes also revealed that Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) participants did not view the outcome-based forward guidance on rates that had been put forth in the last FOMC statement as “an unconditional commitment to a particular path.”

“Most participants supported providing more explicit outcome-based forward guidance for the federal funds rate that included establishing criteria for lifting the federal funds rate above the ELB [effective lower bound] in terms of the paths for employment or inflation or both,” according to the minutes. “Among the participants who favored providing more explicit forward guidance at this meeting, all but a couple supported a formulation in which the forward guidance included language indicating that it would likely be appropriate to maintain the current target range until labor market conditions were judged to be consistent with the Committee’s assessments of maximum employment and inflation had risen to 2% and was on track to moderately exceed 2 percent for some time.”

“Participants generally noted that outcome-based forward guidance for the federal funds rate of this type was not an unconditional commitment to a particular path,” the minutes added.

President Donald Trump has been “fever-free for more than 4 days, symptom-free for over 24 hours, and has not needed nor received any supplemental oxygen since initial hospitalization,” White House physician Dr. Sean Conley wrote in a memo Wednesday afternoon.

The president has been out of the hospital since Monday evening, after being taken to Walter Reed National Military Medical Center late Friday and staying the weekend to be treated for Covid-19.

The three major indices added to gains in intraday trading Wednesday. The Dow outperformed with a rise of 1.5%, or 426 points, led by gains in Salesforce and Boeing. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq each also rose at least 1.3%.

Gains in the S&P 500 were led by the materials, consumer discretionary and industrials sectors. Each of the 11 major sectors were positive on the day, though the communication services, energy and real estate sectors lagged.

Here were the main moves in markets, as of 9:31 a.m. ET:

  • S&P 500 (^GSPC): +39.14 points (+1.16%) to 3,400

  • Dow (^DJI): +320.57 points (+1.15%) to 28,093.33

  • Nasdaq (^IXIC): +132.13 points (+1.18%) to 11,286.39

  • Crude (CL=F): -$1.01 (-2.48%) to $39.66 a barrel

  • Gold (GC=F): -$20.50 (-1.07%) to $1,888.30 per ounce

  • 10-year Treasury (^TNX): +3.8 bps to yield 0.778%

Drugmaker Eli Lilly & Co. (LLY) said Wednesday it has requested that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration authorize its experimental Covid-19 antibody therapy for emergency use. The company said new data showed its treatment helped reduce “viral load, symptoms and COVID-related hospitalization and ER visits,” according to a statement.

Shares of Eli Lilly rose more than 3% in pre-market trading.

Here were the main moves in markets, as of 7:28 a.m. ET:

  • S&P 500 futures (ES=F): 3,372.5, up 19.25 points or 0.57%

  • Dow futures (YM=F): 27,877.00, up 177 points or 0.64%

  • Nasdaq futures (NQ=F): 11,331.00, up 57.27 points or 0.51%

  • Crude (CL=F): -$1.13 (-2.78%) to $39.54 a barrel

  • Gold (GC=F): -$22.40 (-1.17%) to $1,886.40 per ounce

  • 10-year Treasury (^TNX): +3.5 bps to yield 0.775%

The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) weekly index tracking mortgage application volume jumped 4.6% for the week ended Oct. 2, following a 4.8% drop during the prior week.

Refinances led the gain, with this index increasing 8% over last week to the highest level since mid-August. The refinance index was up 50% over last year. However, an index tracking purchases fell 2% week-over-week, seasonally adjusted, but was still 21% higher than the same period last week on an unadjusted basis.

“Mortgage rates declined across the board last week – with most falling to record lows – and borrowers responded,” Joel Kan, MBA’s associate vice president of economic and industry forecasting, said in a statement. ““Continuing the trend seen in recent months, the purchase market is growing at a strong clip, with activity last week up 21 percent from a year ago. The average loan size increased again to a new record at $371,500, as activity in the higher loan size categories continues to lead growth.”

Here were the main moves in equity markets, as of 6:08 p.m. ET Tuesday:

  • S&P 500 futures (ES=F): 3,338.00, down 15.25 points or 0.45%

  • Dow futures (YM=F): 27,588.00, down 112 points or 0.4%

  • Nasdaq futures (NQ=F): 11,230.00, down 43.75 points or 0.39%

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, October 2, 2008. U.S. stocks slid on Thursday as tight credit markets and bleak economic data forced investors to focus on the rocky road still ahead for the U.S. economy even if Congress passes a $700 billion rescue package. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid (UNITED STATES)

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Source: finance.yahoo.com

Author: Emily McCormick·ReporterOctober 8, 2020, 4:06 AM


Is Trading Technologies for sale?

Is Trading Technologies for sale?

Chicago-based trading software company Trading Technologies is for sale, and may be close to completing a deal, according to a report from Barron’s that cites unnamed sources.

Trading Technologies is expected to fetch about $500 million in an auction process that may be in the “late stages” and is being handled by the investment banking shop Broadhaven Capital Partners, the publication said. 

A spokesman for Trading Technologies, Drew Mauck, provided a statement that suggests the talks might be related to a partnership. “The TT platform is an industry-leading technology that unsurprisingly has captured the attention of a variety of industry players,” the statement said. “Conversations with other firms about partnerships are nothing new, as we have always looked for ways to unlock additional value and share our vision for scaling the business.”

Trading Technologies was founded in 1994 and grew up in Chicago as one of the first companies catering to increasingly electronic derivatives and securities marketplaces.

Former Trading Technologies Chairman Harris Brumfield, a longtime owner of the company and still its majority shareholder, declined to comment. He bought the company in 2001 and in 2014 handed off the CEO title to Rick Lane, the company’s one-time chief technology officer. Lane, now chairman of the company, didn’t respond to an email seeking comment.

Trading Technologies has 14 offices and about 350 employees, according to its website. The company has shrunk during Lane’s tenure, at least in terms of headcount, as competition in providing software tools to electronic traders has increased and as many firms have developed their own internal technology.

Source: www.chicagobusiness.com

Author: Lynne Marek


Electrical Steel Market to Garner $21.0 Billion, Globally, By 2027 at 5.8% CAGR, Says Allied Market Research

Electrical Steel Market to Garner $21.0 Billion, Globally, By 2027 at 5.8% CAGR, Says Allied Market Research

PORTLAND, Ore., Oct. 7, 2020 /PRNewswire/ — Allied Market Research published a report, titled, “Electrical Steel Market by Type (Grain Oriented Electrical Steel and Non-Grain Oriented Electrical Steel) and Application (Transformers, Motors, Generators, and Others): Global Opportunity Analysis and Industry Forecast, 2020-2027.” According to the report, the global electrical steel industry generated $15.0 billion in 2019, and is projected to generate $21.0 billion by 2027, portraying a CAGR of 5.8% from 2020 to 2027.

Prime determinants of growth

Surge in demand for energy generation & transmission applications and increase in renewable energy deployment fuel the growth of the global electrical steel market. However, variations in prices of raw materials restrain the market growth. Contrarily, increase in electrical vehicle utilization creates new opportunities in the next few years.

Request PDF Brochure: https://www.alliedmarketresearch.com/request-sample/7533

Covid-19 Scenario

  • The manufacturing activities of electrical steel have been halted due to shortage of raw materials with disruption in supply chain. Moreover, lockdown by many governments led to stoppage in the operations of manufacturing factories.
  • Moreover, the demand for electrical steel declined significantly with a ban on installation activities of new transformers, motors, and others. Moreover, new investments in the projects have been frozen by investors.
  • The demand from the electric vehicle sector reduced significantly due to halt in manufacturing and maintenance activities during the lockdown. However, the demand is expected to get back on track during the post-lockdown period, as manufacturing activities begin with a minimal workforce.
  • The non-grain-oriented segment to maintain its lead position throughout the forecast period

    By type, the non-grain-oriented segment held the highest market share, contributing to nearly two-thirds of the total share of the global electrical steel market in 2019, and is projected to maintain its lead position throughout the forecast period. This is due to its effectiveness in building efficient hybrid electric vehicles that provide enhanced driving range and outstanding performance. However, the grain-oriented segment is expected to register the highest CAGR of 6.0% from 2020 to 2027, owing to rise in demand of electrical transformers, upgrade of existing grid network, and increase in initiatives for smart grid development.

    Get Detailed COVID-19 Impact Analysis on the Electrical Steel Market @ https://www.alliedmarketresearch.com/request-for-customization/7533?reqfor=covid

    The transformers segment to lead in terms of revenue throughout the forecast period

    By application, the transformers segment held the largest share in 2019, accounting for nearly two-fifths of the global electrical steel market share, and is estimated to continue to lead in terms of revenue throughout the forecast period. This is due to various factors including penetration of renewables in developing nations, high rates of equipment replacement, and rise in energy demand from emerging economies. However, the motors segment would portray the highest CAGR of 6.4% from 2020 to 2027, owing to significant increase in demand for electric vehicles.

    Asia-Pacific to offer lucrative opportunities, North America to grow steadily

    Based on region, Asia-Pacific accounted for the highest market share in 2019, holding nearly two-thirds of total share of the global electrical steel market, and will maintain its dominance throughout the forecast period. Moreover, this region would register the highest CAGR of 6.0% from 2020 to 2027. This is due to rise in demand for energy from the industrial sector, presence of major players, and increase in prominence of electric vehicle in the region. However, North America is expected to register a steady growth with a CAGR of 5.3% during the forecast period.

    Leading Market Players

  • Aperam
  • Baosteel Group Hu
  • ArcelorMittal
  • JFE Holdings, Inc.
  • Cleveland-Cliffs Inc.
  • Nippon Steel Corporation
  • POSCO
  • Tata Steel
  • Slovenian Steel Group
  • Voestalpine AG
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    Fluoropolymers Market: Global Opportunity Analysis and Industry Forecast 2020–2027
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    The stock market may be too optimistic about stimulus chances

    The stock market may be too optimistic about stimulus chances

    Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, March 20, 2020.

    Lucas Jackson | Reuters

    “I’m surprised that everybody is all bulled up about it again,” John Briggs, head of strategy at NatWest Markets.

    Some see the disagreement over what’s in the package as insurmountable in the short-term, and they do not expect a compromise in Congress until after the election. One reason is Senate Republicans, who have sought a much smaller package than even the White House, have the Supreme Court nomination on their calendar and will be occupied.

    Democrats have sought a $2.2 trillion package that would provide funds for individuals, help businesses and provide aid to state and local governments. The White House has said it would agree to $1.6 trillion package.

    “Stimulus isn’t not going to happen. It’s just that the timing is not that clear. And that’s a situation where I think the market is going to be able to look through it ultimately,” said Tom Lee, founder of Fundstrat. “It’s not like one side or the other doesn’t want stimulus. The sticking point is the ultimate magnitude.”

    Lee said the market would soar if the two sides were to come to an agreement on stimulus. But it would still be positive, if there were a successful piecemeal approach. “It shows a sense of urgency,” he said.

    But no bill would be problematic. “I think the economy is in a rough spot right now because there are still a lot of restrictions, and I think people are pretty fearful of going out, so it’s important to get some sort of bridge until the economy comes back,”uld also not be helpful if it took until next year. “First quarter would be really terrifying. I think equities aren’t comfortable in the short term with  uncertainty. That’s why the election is creating a lot of turmoil as well,” Lee said.

    But Lee said post-election, investors would probably invest in the same way regardless of who wins. Both candidates would be expected to push a big spending program right away, on top of the Covid relief.

    House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has said she would consider a smaller bill just aimed at airlines, but the bill was blocked by Republicans late last week. Yet after the Trump tweet, airline stocks were flying on hope for more aid, with Delta up more than 3% and United Airlines up more than 4.5%.

    “The markets are highly emotional here. You almost wonder if they’ve got Covid themselves. The movements are a greater magnitude than you would think, given the news,” said Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at MUFG Union Bank. “As an economist I don’t know how much stimulus is necessary at this stage. It’s still going to be a slog. It would be nice if we could get those $600 a week unemployment checks back to people without work.”

    Rupkey said it seems too many people have to agree to the fiscal stimulus and it’s not likely to get finished by the Nov. 3 election.

    “I think investors should realize here there’s probably not going to be a deal anyway until we see the results on Nov. 3. A lot of this is we’re coming back from a 10% sell-off sot here’s some momentum from people getting back in after the sell-off. There’s a discount and they want to get back in. It could be on the flimsiest of headlines.”

    Julian Emanuel, head of equity and derivatives strategy at BTIG, said the market  is vulnerable because of the lack of stimulus and it could decline to a point where it tests its 200-day moving average, at 3,113, about 7% below Tuesday’s close of 3,360. The S&P was up 1.6% Wednesday.

    “Trump and his opponents know history- when the market has been higher in the 90 days prior to the election, the incumbent has won 85.7% of the time,” ‘Emanuel said in a note. “Conversely, when the market is down in September and October cumulatively prior to an election (3,500) is the level to watch), incumbent party has lost on 6 of 6 elections.”

    Sam Stovall, CFRA chief investment strategist, said there may be an exception to that rule this year, if former vice president Joe Biden is to win the election and it would be due to the uncertainty of Covid. He said there were overriding factors impacting the election in 1968, with the Vietnam War and 1980, the Iran hostage crisis. In both those years, the incumbent or incumbent party were ousted.

    Stovall said he is skeptical that Trump can push through smaller stimulus relief, and the market could cotninue to have its negative moments. “The bias remains neutral for large stocks and so the market could be vulnerable to additional disappointments,” he said. “Congress controls the purse strings…Can [Trump] really say ‘I’m going to get this and that…It just seems like empty words.'”

     Stovall said if there was a coming together, the market could break out. “It’s just a reminder that October is by far the most volatile month of the year, with a standard deviation of returns that is 36% higher than the average for all other months,” he said.

    Source: www.cnbc.com

    Author: Patti Domm


    Asian shares mostly higher on hopes for U.S. stimulus


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